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Moneylines, puck lines, totals — what the numbers mean, how to convert them to probability, and how to spot when the market might be off.
Pick who wins. That's it. Odds tell you the payout.
-160 (favorite) — bet $160 to win $100
+140 (underdog) — bet $100 to win $140
Hockey's point spread — almost always fixed at -1.5 / +1.5.
-1.5 — favorite must win by 2+
+1.5 — underdog covers if they lose by 1 or win
Combined goals by both teams. Usually set at 5.5 or 6.
Over 5.5 — you think 6+ total goals
Under 5.5 — you think 5 or fewer
Every moneyline has a win probability baked in. Knowing how to extract it lets you compare what the market thinks versus what a model thinks.
Favorites (-)
|odds| / (|odds| + 100)-160 → 160/260 = 61.5%
Underdogs (+)
100 / (odds + 100)+140 → 100/240 = 41.7%
Example: Panthers vs Sabres
Florida Panthers
-160
Implied: 61.5%
Buffalo Sabres
+140
Implied: 41.7%
PuckCast model
55%
Sabres undervalued?
If PuckCast gives the Sabres a 55% win probability but the market implies only 41.7%, that's a 13-point gap. The model sees the Sabres as significantly more likely to win than the odds suggest. That gap is potential edge — the kind of thing that matters over hundreds of bets.
Confirmed starters shift lines significantly. A backup getting the start can move odds 20+ cents.
Teams playing their second game in two nights are historically worse. Books adjust, but sometimes not enough.
Key player injuries move lines. Late scratches announced close to puck drop can create brief market inefficiencies.
Heavy public betting on one side can push the line. Sharp money often goes the other way.
American odds use +/- format. Negative numbers (e.g. -160) indicate the favorite: you'd bet $160 to win $100. Positive numbers (e.g. +140) indicate the underdog: a $100 bet wins $140.
The puck line is hockey's spread bet, set at -1.5/+1.5. The favorite must win by 2+ goals to cover the -1.5. The underdog covers by winning outright or losing by just one goal.
The over/under (total) is the combined total goals line, typically set at 5.5 or 6. Bet the over if you expect a high-scoring game, the under if you expect goalies to dominate.