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Plain-English definitions of the analytics terms behind PuckCast predictions.
A Back-to-Back occurs when a team plays two games on consecutive days. The second game carries a measurable performance penalty: fatigue affects skating, goalie performance, and special teams. PuckCast explicitly adjusts win probability downward for teams playing the second leg of a back-to-back.
PuckCast grades every prediction A, B, or C+ based on how strongly the model's signals align. A-grade games have the clearest model edge, supported by multiple features. C+ grades indicate a lean with less certainty. Use grades to filter for your highest-conviction picks.
Corsi counts all shot attempts (shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots) at 5-on-5. It's a possession proxy: teams that outshoot their opponents over a full season tend to win more. When PuckCast references shot differential, Corsi is the foundation.
Edge is the gap between PuckCast's win probability and the implied probability baked into the betting market's odds. A positive edge means the model thinks a team is more likely to win than the market does. Large edges on A-grade games are the highest-value spots PuckCast surfaces.
Fenwick is like Corsi but removes blocked shots from the equation. Because blocked shots are partially controlled by the defending team, Fenwick is sometimes considered a cleaner read on a team's puck possession and zone time.
Goalie Form is a rolling save percentage metric weighted toward a goalie's last 10 starts. A goalie on a hot streak gets a positive bump; one who's been leaky gets a negative adjustment. Since goaltending is often the deciding factor in tight games, PuckCast treats goalie form as a high-weight feature.
GSAA quantifies how many goals a goalie prevented compared to what an average goalie would have allowed facing the same shots. A positive GSAA means the goalie is adding value above replacement level. It's one of PuckCast's primary inputs when evaluating starting goalie impact.
Head-to-Head tracks how two teams have performed historically in direct matchups. While current-season form matters more, sustained H2H trends (especially in division rivalries) carry signal. PuckCast weights recent head-to-head results as a secondary feature in the model.
Home Ice Advantage is the well-documented statistical boost that home teams receive: better sleep, no travel fatigue, crowd energy, and last-change line matchup control. PuckCast bakes a calibrated home ice factor into every prediction rather than treating it as a coin flip.
The Model Favorite is whichever team PuckCast assigns greater than 50% win probability. It's not always the betting favorite, and when those two disagree, that divergence is often where the sharpest edge lives.
PDO is a team's shooting percentage added to its save percentage. League average hovers around 100%, and PDO tends to regress toward that over time. A team with a PDO well above 100% is likely running hot. PuckCast uses PDO as a luck-adjustment signal.
Rest Days counts how many days have passed since a team's last game. More rest generally correlates with a slight improvement in performance, particularly for goalies and high-minute defensemen. PuckCast incorporates rest differential as a feature when both teams have notably different schedules.
Win Probability is the model's calibrated estimate that a given team wins in regulation or OT/SO. It's expressed as a percentage and is the single most important output PuckCast produces. Probabilities are calibrated against historical outcomes: a 65% pick wins roughly 65% of the time.
xG measures how many goals a team should have scored based on the quality of shots taken, not just whether the puck went in. A shot from the slot counts for more than one from the perimeter. PuckCast uses xG as a core signal for evaluating true offensive output.
xGA measures the quality of scoring chances a goalie has faced, independent of whether they stopped them. A goalie posting a low goals-against on a weak-shot diet looks better than the raw numbers suggest. PuckCast uses xGA to separate goalie skill from team defense.
Common Questions
Expected goals (xG) measures shot quality: how many goals a team should have scored based on where shots came from and how dangerous they were. A slot chance counts for more than a shot from the blueline. PuckCast uses xG to evaluate true offensive strength, separate from luck or goaltending.
Corsi is a shot attempt differential metric that counts shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots at even strength. Teams with a positive Corsi (more shot attempts than their opponents) tend to possess the puck more and win more games over time. It's one of the foundational possession stats in modern NHL analytics.
PDO is a team's shooting percentage plus its save percentage. The league average is approximately 100%, and PDO regresses toward that mean over a season. Teams running significantly above 100% are often getting lucky. PuckCast uses PDO as a luck-adjustment signal in its predictions.
Fenwick is similar to Corsi but excludes blocked shots, leaving only shots on goal and missed shots. Some analysts prefer Fenwick because blocked shots are partly controlled by the defending team. Like Corsi, a positive Fenwick percentage indicates strong possession and tends to predict future success.
PuckCast assigns every prediction a Confidence Grade of A, B, or C+ based on how strongly the model's signals align. A-grade picks have the clearest edge, backed by multiple features. C+ grades are valid picks with a lesser degree of model conviction. Use grades to filter for your most confident plays.