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The complete record for every PuckCast projection since the model went live. Win probabilities shown against implied market odds. We don't hide the losses.
Accuracy
62.0%
Test Games
5,002
A+ Picks
79.3%
Log Loss
0.658
Accuracy by Grade
Latest Results
9 of 14 correct over the last 2 game days.
| Matchup | Result | Pick | Grade | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI@TOR | 3-1 | NYI60.4% | C+ | HIT |
| BOS@MTL | 2-3OT | MTL52.2% | C | HIT |
| CAR@CBJ | 1-5 | CAR57.3% | C | MISS |
| MIN@CHI | 4-3OT | MIN65.7% | C+ | HIT |
| NSH@WPG | 4-3OT | NSH50.2% | C | HIT |
| SJS@EDM | 3-5 | EDM62.7% | C+ | HIT |
| FLA@VAN | 2-5 | FLA64.8% | C+ | MISS |
| BUF@VGK | 2-0 | BUF52.5% | C | HIT |
| TBL@SEA | 6-2 | TBL65.0% | C+ | HIT |
| CGY@DET | 2-5 | DET58.4% | C+ | HIT |
| BOS@NJD | 3-4OT | BOS58.7% | C | MISS |
| LAK@NYR | 4-1 | LAK55.8% | C | HIT |
| UTA@DAL | 6-3 | DAL54.3% | C | MISS |
| PIT@COL | 7-2 | COL63.9% | C+ | MISS |
Backtest History
Holdout results across multiple seasons. Each season tested using a model trained only on prior years.
2024-25
59.7%
1,312 games
+3.4 vs baseline
Log loss: 0.659
2023-24
62.3%
1,230 games
+8.5 vs baseline
Log loss: 0.659
2022-23
61.4%
1,230 games
+10.0 vs baseline
Log loss: 0.653
2021-22
64.7%
1,230 games
+10.6 vs baseline
Log loss: 0.651
Understanding the Numbers
Plain-English explanations for the stats on this page.
Accuracy
The percentage of games where our predicted winner actually won. The NHL baseline (always picking home) is ~53.9%. We beat it by +8.1 points.
Log Loss
Measures calibration — when we say "70% chance", it should happen ~70% of the time. Lower is better. 0 = perfect, 0.693 = random guessing.
Edge (points)
How far from 50/50 each prediction is. A 65% pick has 15 pts of edge. Higher edge = higher confidence. Our grading system is based on edge size.
Brier Score
Mean squared error between predicted probability and actual outcome. Combines accuracy and confidence into one number. 0 = perfect, 0.25 = random.
Baseline
The accuracy from always picking the home team. Any useful model should beat this. Home teams win ~54% in the NHL.
Holdout Testing
Testing on games the model never saw. For each season, the model trained only on prior years. True forward validation that prevents overfitting.
Common Questions
Overall accuracy is 62% across 5,000+ tested games. A+ confidence picks have hit at 79.3%.
A testing method where the model is trained on past seasons and tested on future games it has never seen. This prevents overfitting and gives realistic accuracy estimates.
Live results update daily as games complete. The track record page shows every prediction ever made.
Accuracy is the percentage of games where PuckCast's predicted winner actually won. It's tested across 5,002 holdout games using walk-forward validation, where the model only sees past data when making each prediction.
Log loss measures calibration — when PuckCast says 70%, those teams should win about 70% of the time. Lower log loss means more honest probability estimates. A perfect model scores 0, random guessing scores 0.693.
Holdout results are from testing v1.8.5 on 5,002 historical games the model never saw during training. Live results are actual predictions made this season before each game. Both use the same model — live just validates it in real time.
Live results update daily as games complete. Holdout test results are from v1.8.5 and remain fixed as the model's validation benchmark.