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The magic number tells you exactly how close a team is to clinching a playoff spot. Once it hits zero, they're in. Here's how it works, how to calculate it, and why it matters down the stretch.
TL;DR
A magic number is the combination of points a team needs to earn, plus points a rival needs to not earn, for the team to clinch a playoff berth. Every win by the leading team and every loss by the chasing team lowers it. When it reaches zero, the spot is locked up.
Imagine two teams fighting for the last playoff spot. The magic number answers one question: "How many more things need to go right for the higher team to make it impossible for the lower team to catch them?"
Each "thing" is a single point in the standings. The leading team earning a point and the trailing team failing to earn a point both count. When the magic number hits zero, no combination of remaining results can change the outcome.
Magic Number Formula
MN = (Rival's remaining games × 2) + 1 + Rival's points − Your points
The "remaining games × 2" represents the maximum points the rival could still earn (2 per win). The "+ 1" is there because a tie in points at the end of the season is broken by other criteria, so the leading team needs to be strictly ahead by at least one point for a guaranteed clinch.
Say the Bruins have 88 points and the Senators have 76 points with 14 games left in their season.
Senators max points
76 + (14 × 2) = 104
Magic number
104 + 1 − 88 = 17
The Bruins' magic number over the Senators is 17. That means any combination of Bruins points earned and Senators points not earned that totals 17 clinches it. If the Bruins win 5 games (10 points) and the Senators lose 7 games in regulation (0 points from those 7 games = 14 points not earned), that's 10 + 7 = 17, and it's done.
Tracks how close a contending team is to locking up a playoff spot. It counts down toward zero as the team wins and rivals lose. When it hits zero, they have clinched.
Good news for the team
Tracks how close a struggling team is to being mathematically eliminated. It counts down toward zero as the team loses and rivals win. When it hits zero, their season is over.
Bad news for the team
They are two sides of the same coin. One team's magic number relative to a rival is essentially that rival's tragic number relative to them. The math is the same; only the perspective changes.
Magic numbers cut through the noise of "if this team wins and that team loses" scenarios. Instead of tracking a dozen hypotheticals, you get one number that tells you exactly how far away a clinch or elimination is.
They also help you judge the real stakes of a game. A Tuesday night matchup between two bubble teams means a lot more when you know the loser's tragic number drops to 3. And a blowout loss matters less to a team whose magic number is already 1.
Key scenarios
In most sports, a loss is worth zero points. In the NHL, an overtime or shootout loss is still worth 1 point. That makes magic number calculations slightly trickier because a trailing team can still gain ground even while losing.
The standard formula already accounts for this by using the maximum possible points (remaining games × 2) for the chasing team. But it does mean a regulation loss by the rival is worth more toward the magic number than an overtime loss, since the OT loss still gives the rival 1 point.
Take the total points available in a season (164 in an 82-game NHL season), add 1, then subtract the leading team's current points and the trailing team's current points. The formula is: Magic Number = (Team A points) + (Team B remaining games × 2) + 1 − (Team B current points). Once the result hits zero or below, the higher team has clinched.
A tragic number (also called an elimination number) is the flip side of the magic number. It tells a lower-ranked team how many combined points they fail to earn and the team above them does earn before they are mathematically eliminated. When a team's tragic number reaches zero, their playoff hopes are over.
Yes. The magic number can drop by two in a single game. If the leading team wins in regulation (earning 2 points) while the chasing team loses in regulation (earning 0 points), the magic number falls by 2. An overtime or shootout result complicates things slightly because the loser still picks up 1 point.
Magic numbers become meaningful in February and March, once teams have played roughly 55 to 65 games. Before that, there are too many games remaining for the numbers to shrink to zero. By April, magic numbers are in single digits for contenders and the clinching scenarios dominate the playoff race narrative.