NHL Playoff Bubble 2026: The 10 Teams Fighting for the Final Spots
10 teams. 14 days. Not enough playoff spots. The model projections, remaining schedules, and head-to-head matchups that will decide the 2026 NHL wild card races.
Fourteen days left. Two teams have clinched: Colorado and Dallas. That's it. The regular season ends April 16, and both conferences have wild card races separated by single digits in the standings. The standings say one thing. The model says another.
In the East, Columbus holds the last playoff spot at 88 points. Four teams sit at 85-86, all within striking distance, none with margin for error. In the West, only 4 points separate spots 8 through 13. Six teams fighting for two spots.
We broke down the East two weeks ago. Everything has tightened since then.
Where things stand
Eastern Conference
| Team | GP | Record | PTS | GD | L10 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina | 74 | 47-21-6 | 100 | +45 | 6-4-0 | ✓ In |
| Buffalo | 75 | 46-21-8 | 100 | +42 | 6-2-2 | ✓ In |
| Tampa Bay | 74 | 46-22-6 | 98 | +61 | 6-2-2 | ✓ In |
| Montreal | 74 | 43-21-10 | 96 | +28 | 7-3-0 | ✓ In |
| Boston | 75 | 43-24-8 | 94 | +23 | 7-1-2 | ✓ In |
| Pittsburgh | 75 | 38-21-16 | 92 | +25 | 6-3-1 | ✓ In |
| NY Islanders | 76 | 42-29-5 | 89 | +1 | 5-5-0 | ⚠ Bubble |
| Columbus | 75 | 38-25-12 | 88 | +8 | 5-4-1 | ⚠ Bubble |
| Ottawa | 74 | 38-26-10 | 86 | +17 | 6-3-1 | ⚠ Bubble |
| Detroit | 74 | 39-27-8 | 86 | -7 | 3-6-1 | ⚠ Bubble |
| Philadelphia | 74 | 37-25-12 | 86 | -5 | 7-2-1 | ⚠ Bubble |
| Washington | 75 | 38-28-9 | 85 | +15 | 6-2-2 | ⚠ Stretch |
| New Jersey | 74 | 38-34-2 | 78 | -22 | 6-4-0 | ✗ Out |
| Toronto | 75 | 32-30-13 | 77 | -29 | 5-3-2 | ✗ Out |
| Florida | 74 | 36-35-3 | 75 | -25 | 4-6-0 | ✗ Out |
| NY Rangers | 75 | 31-35-9 | 71 | -18 | 4-5-1 | ✗ Out |
Eastern Conference
Western Conference
| Team | GP | Record | PTS | GD | L10 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado (x) | 74 | 49-15-10 | 108 | +90 | 5-4-1 | ✓ Clinched |
| Dallas (x) | 75 | 44-19-12 | 100 | +46 | 3-5-2 | ✓ Clinched |
| Minnesota | 74 | 41-21-12 | 94 | +26 | 4-5-1 | ✓ In |
| Anaheim | 75 | 41-29-5 | 87 | -8 | 5-3-2 | ✓ In |
| Edmonton | 75 | 38-28-9 | 85 | +10 | 6-3-1 | ✓ In |
| Utah | 74 | 38-30-6 | 82 | +23 | 4-5-1 | ⚠ Bubble |
| Vegas | 75 | 33-26-16 | 82 | 0 | 4-4-2 | ⚠ Bubble |
| LA Kings | 74 | 29-26-18 | 78 | -26 | 4-3-3 | ⚠ Bubble |
| San Jose | 73 | ~34-31-7 | 77 | -- | -- | ⚠ Bubble |
| Nashville | 74 | 34-31-9 | 77 | -- | 3-6-1 | ⚠ Bubble |
| Winnipeg | 74 | 32-30-12 | 76 | -- | 4-4-2 | ⚠ Stretch |
| Seattle | 73 | 32-30-11 | 75 | -- | -- | ⚠ Stretch |
| St. Louis | 74 | 31-31-12 | 74 | -- | -- | ✗ Fading |
| Calgary | 74 | 31-35-8 | 70 | -- | -- | ✗ Out |
| Chicago | 75 | 27-34-14 | 68 | -- | -- | ✗ Out |
| Vancouver (e) | 74 | 22-44-8 | 52 | -- | -- | ✗ Eliminated |
Western Conference
East: four at 86, three spots, no margin
The Eastern bubble is a four-team pileup at 85-86 points chasing Columbus (88) for the last spot. At most two of these teams get in. More likely one.
Columbus (88, WC2): Holding the last spot but entering this week on a 3-game losing streak. Severson and Olivier are done for the season. The remaining schedule is brutal: @CAR, WPG, @DET, @BUF, @MTL, BOS, WSH. Seven games, five against current playoff teams. The April 7 game at Detroit is the most important remaining game in the East.
Ottawa (86, 9th): The model's sleeper. Their xG differential of +0.461 per game is the best among all bubble teams. But Chabot is done for the season after forearm surgery, Sanderson is day-to-day, and Jensen is on IR. The defense is decimated. Six of their 8 remaining games are at home, which helps. Their 32 regulation wins beat Columbus (27), the Islanders (28), and Philly (23) in any tiebreaker scenario.
Detroit (86, 10th): Fading hard. 3-6-1 in their last 10, the worst mark among bubble teams. A negative goal differential (-7) for a team fighting for its playoff life. The model says their underlying numbers (top-6 in xG%) should have them higher, but the finishing problem we flagged two weeks ago hasn't corrected. CBJ at home April 7 is do-or-die.
Philadelphia (86, 11th): The hottest team in the race at 7-2-1 in their last 10. Porter Martone's debut injected energy into a lineup that was grinding. But 23 regulation wins is a tiebreaker time bomb. If they finish tied with Ottawa (32 RW) or Detroit (28 RW), they lose. They need clear separation, not a tie.
Washington (85, 12th): Three points back with 7 games left. Maximum possible: 99 points. They need to beat Pittsburgh twice (Apr 11-12) and win at Columbus in the finale (Apr 14). The math is barely alive, and it requires almost everything to break their way.
East Bubble Analytics
East Bubble Analytics
Model Projection
The model likes Ottawa's underlying numbers more than any team on the bubble. But losing Chabot for the season changes the equation. If Sanderson plays, Ottawa gets in. If he doesn't, Columbus holds on.
One more team worth watching: the Islanders at 89 points with 6 games left, 5 of them at home. They're likely safe, but a +1 goal differential and a 5-5-0 L10 don't inspire confidence. With only 6 games remaining, any stumble opens the door for a team below them.
West: the Kings are a mirage
The West wild card is a six-team mess within 4 points. And the team currently holding the last spot has no business being there.
Utah (82, WC1): Best goal differential among West bubble teams at +23. The model has them at 98.8% playoff odds. Quiet, efficient, and likely safe.
LA Kings (78, WC2): The biggest fraud in the West. Eighteen overtime losses, the most in the league. Only 19 regulation wins, the worst among all contenders in either conference. Those 78 points are inflated by loser points. A -26 goal differential tells the real story.
The model gives them just 22.8% playoff odds. Strip out OTL points and judge this team on games they actually won in regulation, and they're closer to a lottery team than a playoff team.
San Jose (77, 9th): Macklin Celebrini: 101 points at age 19. He's the 6th teenager in NHL history to hit 100, joining Gretzky, Lemieux, Crosby, Hawerchuk, and Carson. He has 50+ more points than any teammate. One kid is carrying an entire franchise into the playoff conversation.
With 9 games remaining, San Jose has the most runway of any bubble team. The model gives them 60.4% playoff odds.
Nashville (77, 10th): 3-6-1 in their last 10. Stamkos and Forsberg provide playoff experience but the team around them is sputtering. They play the Kings twice and the Sharks twice in the final two weeks. Those 4 games will likely decide WC2.
Winnipeg (76, 11th): Won 4 of their last 5 recently. Kyle Connor and Hellebuyck give them a ceiling that the other bubble teams can't match. Only 2.9% playoff odds, but they're just one point behind Nashville. Stranger things have happened, though not many.
Model Projection
San Jose has the games in hand, the star power, and the home schedule to grab WC2. Nashville's 4 head-to-head games against the Kings and Sharks will decide whether they survive. The Kings' 19 regulation wins mean any tiebreaker scenario eliminates them.
The model's blind spots
The model has been right more often than not this season. But there are teams it still can't figure out. We wrote about the hardest teams to predict last month. Three of them are still causing problems.
Boston's xG differential is -0.416 per game, the worst in the East among playoff-positioned teams. They have a +13 win gap between actual wins and xG-implied wins. The model has been wrong about Boston all year.
Their PDO screams regression, but here they are at 94 points, going 7-1-2 in their last 10. At some point you stop calling it luck and start calling it a system the model doesn't capture.
Buffalo's .916 goaltending save percentage from Alex Lyon is propping up the worst xG differential of any East playoff team (-0.296). They're safe at 100 points, but their underlying numbers look like a team that's outperforming its expected results. A first-round series against Carolina or Tampa could expose what the regular season has hidden.
Anaheim has a -8 goal differential while sitting 4th in the Pacific. Their "Comeback Kids" identity, including an NHL-record 8 game-tying goals in the final 2 minutes, is the kind of thing that doesn't translate to a seven-game series. Playoff opponents don't let you come back. They close you out.
Three things that could blow up these projections: Ottawa's Jake Sanderson returning healthy. Nashville's schedule (4 games against direct competitors). And whether San Jose's Celebrini can sustain 101-point production in must-win games down the stretch.
The games that decide it
Circle these dates.
Apr 2: DET @ PHI: 86 versus 86. Tied in points, playing tonight. Loser falls behind in a race with no margin.
Apr 7: CBJ @ DET: The most important remaining game in the East. WC2 holder visits the closest chaser. Four-point swing.
Apr 4: NSH @ SJS: Two West bubble teams head-to-head. San Jose's home schedule is their lifeline.
Apr 6: NSH @ LAK: Nashville's second meeting with LA in 4 days. These teams can't avoid each other down the stretch.
Apr 11: OTT @ NYI: Direct East bubble battle. Ottawa needs this one to stay alive.
Apr 12: BOS @ CBJ: Could clinch or eliminate Columbus.
Apr 14: WSH @ CBJ: Washington's season finale at Columbus. Could be an elimination game for one or both.
Model Projection
The model projects Ottawa and San Jose as the two teams most likely to climb into the playoffs from outside the current cut line. Columbus and the LA Kings are the two most likely to fall out. Check today's full projections on our predictions page.
Fourteen days. At least four teams sitting at 86 points right now are going to miss the playoffs. The model has its picks, the underlying numbers point in one direction, and the remaining schedules will bend every projection between now and April 16. This is when the regular season earns its keep.
Check our daily updated predictions for the latest odds. See where every team ranks in our power index.
Stats current as of April 2, 2026. Projections from PuckCast model using NHL standings and game data.