PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
Tonight's board · updated Oct 8, 3:21 PM ET
Model probability vs the market, sized by half-Kelly
Our probability minus the market's, after a 30% blend toward the market price. How this is calculated
Same-game parlays
Pick legs off tonight’s slate and see what the slip is really worth: our joint probability with the same-game correlations applied, our vig-free fair odds, the book’s price, and the edge between them.
Common Questions
A betting edge exists when the model's estimated win probability for a team exceeds the implied probability from sportsbook odds. For example, if the model gives a team a 60% chance to win but the odds imply only 50%, that's a 10-point edge.
The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula that determines the optimal bet size based on the size of your edge and the odds offered. Half-Kelly (betting half the Kelly-recommended amount) is more conservative and reduces variance while still capturing most of the edge.
It depends on the day's odds. Some slates have multiple games where the model disagrees significantly with the market; other days have none. Edges are most common when the market undervalues rest advantages, goalie matchups, or recent form shifts.
No. Edges represent positive expected value over the long run, not guaranteed outcomes. A 60% probability still loses 40% of the time. The value is in consistently finding +EV spots, not in any single bet.