PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
OPENING WEEK · PRESEASON FORECAST VS MARKET · LINES AS OF SEP 17
Preseason forecast vs the market, no stake sized
A win probability from each team’s preseason rating, priced against the moneylines the books have already posted for opening week. It is a forecast, not the model read, and nothing on it is graded. The full model read publishes inside seven days of puck drop and replaces these numbers. How the model works
Games priced
33
Gaps over 5 pts
15
Average gap
4.5%
Books quoting
10
FLA@
ANAB ANA55.5%Model
55.5%
Market
45.6%
| Caesars | +115 | 44.3% | +11.2 |
| BetMGM | +110 | 45.7% | +9.7 |
| DraftKings | +105 | 46.8% | +8.7 |
The gap is the forecast probability minus the market’s de-vigged probability on the same side. No stake is sized here: the preseason forecast is calibrated for a full season, not for one game, so it carries no Kelly fraction and nothing on this board enters the graded ledger. Not financial advice.
Same-game parlays
Pick legs off tonight’s slate and see what the slip is really worth: our joint probability with the same-game correlations applied, our vig-free fair odds, the book’s price, and the edge between them.
Common Questions
A betting edge exists when the model's estimated win probability for a team exceeds the implied probability from sportsbook odds. For example, if the model gives a team a 60% chance to win but the odds imply only 50%, that's a 10-point edge.
The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula that determines the optimal bet size based on the size of your edge and the odds offered. Half-Kelly (betting half the Kelly-recommended amount) is more conservative and reduces variance while still capturing most of the edge.
It depends on the day's odds. Some slates have multiple games where the model disagrees significantly with the market; other days have none. Edges are most common when the market undervalues rest advantages, goalie matchups, or recent form shifts.
No. Edges represent positive expected value over the long run, not guaranteed outcomes. A 60% probability still loses 40% of the time. The value is in consistently finding +EV spots, not in any single bet.
