PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Thu, Oct 1, 10:00 PM ET
Alex Nedeljkovic · 0.896 SV%
The preseason ratings make San Jose Sharks 53.0% to win at home — barely a lean at all, worth 3.0 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project SJS for 91 points and FLA for 92.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
FLA controlled play at 5v5 last season, 49.8% of the expected goals to 47.0%; SJS's power play ran at 21.2% against a FLA kill at 81.0%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Alex Nedeljkovic (SJS) saved -14.6 goals above expected to Jacob Markstrom's -29.8, on save percentages of 0.896 and 0.883.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. San Jose Sharks over Florida Panthers is where it starts, not where it ends.
Best posted price per side across 5 books, taken Sep 17. The percentages beside them are what those prices imply with the book’s margin removed.
| Side | Best price | Book | Market (no vig) | Forecast | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | -130 | Caesars | 55.3% | 47.0% | -8.3 pts |
| SJS | +120 | Bovada | 44.7% | 53.0% | +8.3 pts |
Total 6.5 · over +105 at Bovada · under -120 at BetMGM. No lean either way: the preseason forecast has no goal model, so the model’s total publishes with the slate.
This is a rating forecast against a posted price, not a bet. No stake is sized and nothing here enters the graded ledger. The full model read publishes inside seven days of puck drop and replaces these numbers.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
FLA
Jacob Markstrom
44 games, 2025-26
SJS
Alex Nedeljkovic
40 games, 2025-26
| FLA | Metric | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| 49.8% | xGF% (5v5) | 47.0% |
| 51.1% | Shot share | 46.5% |
| 3.0 | Goals for / game | 3.0 |
| 3.3 | Goals against / game | 3.5 |
| 19.6% | Power play | 21.2% |
| 81.0% | Penalty kill | 76.4% |
| 46.8% | Faceoffs | 47.8% |
Florida Panthers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brady Tkachuk | L | 29 | 38 | 67 |
 Sam Reinhart | C | 31 | 34 | 65 |
 Matthew Tkachuk | L | 23 | 41 | 63 |
 Carter Verhaeghe | C | 23 | 29 | 52 |
San Jose Sharks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Macklin Celebrini | C | 39 | 60 | 99 |
Florida PanthersComes in from Tue, Sep 29 · FLA @ CAR
San Jose SharksSeason opener — no previous game, no rest edge either way.
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | SJS @ FLA | FLA | SJS 4–1 FLA | Missed |
| 2025-11-08 | FLA @ SJS | FLA | FLA 1–3 SJS | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Florida Panthers | 92 | 38.1% |
| San Jose Sharks | 91 | 45.4% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
 Will Smith | C | 25 | 36 | 60 |
|---|
 Mason Marchment | L | 17 | 24 | 41 |
|---|
 Tyler Toffoli | C | 19 | 22 | 41 |
|---|
