PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 projection
Every team’s projected point total and playoff odds, from 20,000 simulations of the full 84-game season. The model carries each team’s end-of-season rating forward, regresses it toward the league average, and then treats that rating as uncertain rather than known — which is what stops a preseason forecast from sounding more confident than it has earned.
| Team | Division | Proj. pts | Playoffs | Division | Presidents’ | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 COL | Central | 107.1 | 78.3% | 27.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% |
2 CAR | Metropolitan | 105.1 | 69.3% | 25.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% |
3 BUF | Atlantic | 104.2 | 67.2% | 20.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% |
4 TBL | Atlantic | 103.5 | 65.7% | 19.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% |
5 DAL | Central | 103.2 | 70.4% | 19.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% |
6 MTL | Atlantic | 101.5 | 61.2% | 16.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% |
7 MIN | Central | 100.7 | 65.5% | 15.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
8 OTT | Atlantic | 100.4 | 58.0% | 14.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% |
9 UTA | Central | 98.8 | 60.8% | 13.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% |
10 BOS | Atlantic | 98.6 | 54.2% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% |
11 PHI | Metropolitan | 98.2 | 53.4% | 13.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
12 WSH | Metropolitan | 97.5 | 51.2% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
13 PIT | Metropolitan | 97.2 | 50.9% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% |
14 EDM | Pacific | 97.1 | 60.5% | 20.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% |
15 VGK | Pacific | 96.2 | 58.1% | 18.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% |
16 CBJ | Metropolitan | 95.5 | 47.6% | 10.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% |
17 STL | Central | 94.2 | 50.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% |
18 ANA | Pacific | 94.1 | 53.3% | 15.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% |
19 NYI | Metropolitan | 93.8 | 42.2% | 8.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% |
20 NJD | Metropolitan | 93.6 | 42.3% | 8.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% |
21 NSH | Central | 93.3 | 47.6% | 7.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% |
22 FLA | Atlantic | 91.9 | 38.1% | 6.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
23 DET | Atlantic | 91.8 | 38.1% | 6.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
24 NYR | Metropolitan | 91.4 | 37.5% | 6.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
25 SJS | Pacific | 90.7 | 45.4% | 11.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% |
26 LAK | Pacific | 90.4 | 44.3% | 11.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% |
27 CGY | Pacific | 89.1 | 41.6% | 10.0% | 1.1% | 1.5% |
28 WPG | Central | 89.1 | 38.0% | 5.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
29 SEA | Pacific | 88.0 | 38.6% | 9.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% |
30 TOR | Atlantic | 84.5 | 22.9% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
31 CHI | Central | 83.4 | 25.9% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
32 VAN | Pacific | 79.6 | 21.8% | 3.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
Every regular-season game has a page with a forecast from these ratings: every game, forecast.
These are preseason numbers and they should be read as approximate. Run against nine past seasons, the projection’s point totals beat both a repeat-last-season baseline and a league-average one, and its playoff probabilities are calibrated — teams given a 70% chance made it roughly 70% of the time. That was not true before: an earlier version was systematically overconfident, giving 80-100% to teams that made it 76% of the time, because it treated each team’s rating as known rather than uncertain.
The Cup column is newer and carries a different kind of uncertainty. Each of the 20,000 simulated seasons builds its own playoff bracket from the standings that season produced, then plays it out — so the number reflects the fact that in August the seeding is as uncertain as the series. The seeding rule is not guesswork: replayed against every NHL season since the wildcard format began, it reproduces all eight first-round matchups in each one.
What cannot be claimed is that a 7% Cup number is calibrated the way the playoff odds are. Nine past seasons contain nine champions, which is not enough to check a 32-way outcome against, and no amount of simulation fixes that. Read the column as a ranking of contenders rather than a precise price — the favourite sits near 8%, and a field where the best team is a one-in-twelve shot is what the history of this league actually looks like.