2026-27 awards odds

The Hart is a vote for most valuable player, and the model reaches it through scoring, which is a proxy rather than the thing itself. Replayed against the last 10 completed seasons it does not beat the obvious baseline at all — Brier 1.018 against the baseline’s 1.011, and a top-3 rate of 20% against the same 20% — and the difference survives only 43% of resamples. So this is an ordering of contenders and deliberately not a set of percentages.

Rank	Player	Pos	Proj. pts
#1	Connor McDavid	C	127
#2	Nathan MacKinnon	C	108
#3	Nikita Kucherov	R	100
#4	Macklin Celebrini	C	99
#5	Leon Draisaitl	C	95
#6	David Pastrnak	R	92
#7	Tim Stützle	C	90
#8	Nick Suzuki	C	90
#9	Mitch Marner	R	87
#10	Jason Robertson	L	86
#11	Mikko Rantanen	R	85
#12	Jack Hughes	C	84

Worth knowing what this column can and cannot do. Projected save percentages across the whole contending field span about ten thousandths — that is genuinely how narrow the gap between NHL goalies is — and measured against what goalies actually went on to post, the model beats a flat league average by 0.00008. Single-season save percentage is mostly noise, and no model removes it. What it does beat, clearly, is what people actually use: last season’s number by 32% and a career average by 18%. Small real differences are still enough to rank with, which is why this held up against the baseline — but it is a ranking of who is slightly ahead, not a claim to know who is best.

These two columns will not match the goalie pages. The Sv% and GP here are the inputs the odds beside each name were simulated from, and they come from the awards simulation’s own goalie model. The goalie projections run a separate roster-aware model — different shrinkage, a starter/1B/backup prior for starts — so for the same goalie it publishes a different save percentage and a different workload. Both are backtested. They disagree because they are two models, not because either is out of date.

Odds	Player	Sv%	GP
13.1%	Andrei Vasilevskiy	.904	56
10.4%	Connor Hellebuyck Suspended by team	.902	57
8.8%	Igor Shesterkin	.903	53
8.3%	Ilya Sorokin	.901	55
5.9%	Logan Thompson	.902	47
4.8%	Jake Oettinger	.898	53
3.8%	Jeremy Swayman	.898	50
3.4%	Juuse Saros	.895	58
2.6%	Linus Ullmark	.898	45
2.4%	Darcy Kuemper	.897	47
2.2%	Karel Vejmelka	.893	54