PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
Model read · Tue, Nov 3
Projected score WPG 1.6 – 3.9 MTL expected goals from the goals model
Canadiens project at 62% as the home lean — a B-tier edge worth 12.2 pts over a coin flip.
The model picks Canadiens at 62.2%, a 12.2-point edge over a coin flip. How this is calculated.
PuckCast gives Canadiens a 62.2% chance to win on Tue, Nov 3. WPG is 4-8-3 and MTL is 9-3-2. Projected in goal: WPG Stuart Skinner, MTL Jacob Fowler. The matchup detail follows.
Canadiens with a 12.2-point edge, backed by goalie mismatch.
Multiple signals align in Canadiens's favor. This is one of the cleaner setups on the slate.
MTL carries roughly a +0.8pp rest edge before model adjustments.
| Book | WPG | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +165 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +160 | -192 |
| Fanatics | +160 | -196 |
| FanDuel | +160 | -192 |
| Caesars | +158 | -189 |
Market: 5 books, best price at BetMGM, lines as of Nov 3, 3:23 AM ET
Moneyline prices only — not a comparison against PuckCast’s model. See PuckCast Edge for the model-vs-market read.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: MTL 3, WPG 2
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | MTL @ WPG | MTL 2, WPG 1 | MTL hit |
| 2026-02-04 | MTL @ WPG | MTL 5, WPG 1 | MTL hit |
| 2025-12-03 | WPG @ MTL | WPG 2, MTL 3 | WPG missed |
| 2025-01-28 | WPG @ MTL | WPG 4, MTL 1 | WPG hit |
| 2024-12-14 | MTL @ WPG | MTL 2, WPG 4 | WPG hit |
1.61
WPG xG
3.92
MTL xG
5.53
Expected total
The lean against each posted line is part of PuckCast Edge — see “Model vs. market” below.
WPG
WPGEach team's own xGF% and CF% at 5v5 this season, shown side by side — not a prediction of how tonight's game itself will split. Raw and unadjusted: no score, venue or schedule adjustment.
WPG top scorers
MTL top scorers
Six more reads on this game, past what’s free above: who’s out, how the starters are trending, the on-ice splits, the model’s read against the market, priced props and same-game combinations.
| Side | Grade | Market | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | B | |||
| MTL | B |
PuckCast Edge
Edge members see where the model and the market disagree on this game, and the best price to take.
234 graded Edge plays this season across 35 nights, each recorded before puck drop and graded at the price when captured. See every play
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