PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Thu, Dec 3, 7:00 PM ET
Igor Shesterkin · 0.912 SV%
The preseason ratings make New York Rangers 56.5% to win at home — a modest lean, worth 6.5 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project NYR for 91 points and SJS for 91.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
NYR controlled play at 5v5 last season, 48.0% of the expected goals to 47.0%; NYR's power play ran at 24.6% against a SJS kill at 76.4%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Igor Shesterkin (NYR) saved 2.2 goals above expected to Alex Nedeljkovic's -14.6, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.896.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. New York Rangers over San Jose Sharks is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
SJS
Alex Nedeljkovic
40 games, 2025-26
NYR
Igor Shesterkin
51 games, 2025-26
| SJS | Metric | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 47.0% | xGF% (5v5) | 48.0% |
| 46.5% | Shot share | 46.6% |
| 3.0 | Goals for / game | 2.9 |
| 3.5 | Goals against / game | 3.0 |
| 21.2% | Power play | 24.6% |
| 76.4% | Penalty kill | 79.9% |
| 47.8% | Faceoffs | 54.5% |
San Jose Sharks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 39 | 60 | 99 | |
| C | 25 | 36 | 60 | |
| L | 17 | 24 | 41 | |
| C | 19 | 22 | 41 |
New York Rangers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 11 | 51 | 61 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | NYR @ SJS | NYR | NYR 1–3 SJS | Missed |
| 2025-10-23 | SJS @ NYR | NYR | SJS 6–5 NYR | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| San Jose Sharks | 91 | 45.4% |
| New York Rangers | 91 | 37.5% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| C | 24 | 37 | 61 |
| C | 19 | 37 | 56 |
| R | 32 | 22 | 54 |