PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Mon, Dec 28, 7:30 PM ET
Connor Hellebuyck · 0.895 SV%
The preseason ratings make Winnipeg Jets 54.3% to win at home — barely a lean at all, worth 4.3 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project WPG for 89 points and SJS for 91.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (47.7% to 47.0%); WPG's power play ran at 18.5% against a SJS kill at 76.4%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Alex Nedeljkovic (SJS) saved -14.6 goals above expected to Connor Hellebuyck's -22.8, on save percentages of 0.896 and 0.895.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Winnipeg Jets over San Jose Sharks is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
SJS
Alex Nedeljkovic
40 games, 2025-26
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck
57 games, 2025-26
| SJS | Metric | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 47.0% | xGF% (5v5) | 47.7% |
| 46.5% | Shot share | 48.7% |
| 3.0 | Goals for / game | 2.8 |
| 3.5 | Goals against / game | 3.1 |
| 21.2% | Power play | 18.5% |
| 76.4% | Penalty kill | 77.6% |
| 47.8% | Faceoffs | 51.1% |
San Jose Sharks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 39 | 60 | 99 | |
| C | 25 | 36 | 60 | |
| L | 17 | 24 | 41 | |
| C | 19 | 22 | 41 |
Winnipeg Jets
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 36 | 46 | 82 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | SJS @ WPG | WPG | SJS 6–1 WPG | Missed |
| 2026-03-01 | WPG @ SJS | WPG | WPG 1–2 SJS | Missed |
| 2025-11-07 | WPG @ SJS | WPG | WPG 1–2 SJS | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| San Jose Sharks | 91 | 45.4% |
| Winnipeg Jets | 89 | 38.0% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| C | 28 | 45 | 73 |
| C | 26 | 31 | 57 |
| D | 11 | 37 | 48 |