PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Sun, Jan 3, 8:00 PM ET
Lukas Dostal · 0.888 SV%
The preseason ratings make Anaheim Ducks 51.1% to win at home — barely a lean at all, worth 1.1 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project ANA for 94 points and PHI for 98.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (51.0% to 51.3%); ANA's power play ran at 20.2% against a PHI kill at 78.7%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Dan Vladar (PHI) saved -5.5 goals above expected to Lukas Dostal's -32.8, on save percentages of 0.906 and 0.888.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Anaheim Ducks over Philadelphia Flyers is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
PHI
Dan Vladar
52 games, 2025-26
ANA
Lukas Dostal
56 games, 2025-26
| PHI | Metric | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 51.3% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.0% |
| 49.5% | Shot share | 52.4% |
| 2.8 | Goals for / game | 3.2 |
| 2.9 | Goals against / game | 3.5 |
| 14.8% | Power play | 20.2% |
| 78.7% | Penalty kill | 75.6% |
| 49.6% | Faceoffs | 47.8% |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 25 | 39 | 64 | |
| R | 24 | 35 | 59 | |
| C | 19 | 31 | 50 | |
| R | 23 | 22 | 44 |
Anaheim Ducks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 34 | 29 | 63 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | PHI @ ANA | ANA | PHI 3–2 ANA | Missed |
| 2026-01-06 | ANA @ PHI | PHI | ANA 2–5 PHI | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Flyers | 98 | 53.4% |
| Anaheim Ducks | 94 | 53.3% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| C | 25 | 34 | 60 |
| R | 21 | 34 | 55 |
| R | 19 | 33 | 51 |