PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Wed, Feb 10, 10:00 PM ET
Alex Nedeljkovic · 0.896 SV%
The preseason ratings make San Jose Sharks 59.8% to win at home — a modest lean, worth 9.8 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project SJS for 91 points and CHI for 83.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
SJS controlled play at 5v5 last season, 47.0% of the expected goals to 43.7%; SJS's power play ran at 21.2% against a CHI kill at 83.6%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Spencer Knight (CHI) saved -12.5 goals above expected to Alex Nedeljkovic's -14.6, on save percentages of 0.902 and 0.896.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. San Jose Sharks over Chicago Blackhawks is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
CHI
Spencer Knight
55 games, 2025-26
SJS
Alex Nedeljkovic
40 games, 2025-26
| CHI | Metric | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| 43.7% | xGF% (5v5) | 47.0% |
| 45.1% | Shot share | 46.5% |
| 2.6 | Goals for / game | 3.0 |
| 3.3 | Goals against / game | 3.5 |
| 17.0% | Power play | 21.2% |
| 83.6% | Penalty kill | 76.4% |
| 46.0% | Faceoffs | 47.8% |
Chicago Blackhawks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 31 | 52 | 83 | |
| R | 18 | 36 | 54 | |
| C | 15 | 29 | 44 | |
| C | 16 | 25 | 41 |
San Jose Sharks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 39 | 60 | 99 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | SJS @ CHI | CHI | SJS 2–5 CHI | Correct |
| 2026-04-06 | CHI @ SJS | SJS | CHI 2–3 SJS | Correct |
| 2026-02-02 | SJS @ CHI | SJS | SJS 3–6 CHI | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Blackhawks | 83 | 25.9% |
| San Jose Sharks | 91 | 45.4% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| C | 25 | 36 | 60 |
| L | 17 | 24 | 41 |
| C | 19 | 22 | 41 |