PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Tue, Mar 9, 8:00 PM ET
Tristan Jarry · 0.882 SV%
The preseason ratings make Edmonton Oilers 59.7% to win at home — a modest lean, worth 9.7 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project EDM for 97 points and LAK for 90.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (51.0% to 51.7%); EDM's power play ran at 30.5% against a LAK kill at 75.3%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Darcy Kuemper (LAK) saved -22.9 goals above expected to Tristan Jarry's -23.1, on save percentages of 0.891 and 0.882.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Edmonton Oilers over Los Angeles Kings is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
LAK
Darcy Kuemper
50 games, 2025-26
EDM
Tristan Jarry
33 games, 2025-26
| LAK | Metric | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 51.7% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.0% |
| 50.5% | Shot share | 52.3% |
| 2.6 | Goals for / game | 3.4 |
| 2.9 | Goals against / game | 3.3 |
| 17.1% | Power play | 30.5% |
| 75.3% | Penalty kill | 75.9% |
| 49.8% | Faceoffs | 52.5% |
Los Angeles Kings
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 25 | 47 | 72 | |
| R | 27 | 31 | 58 | |
| R | 22 | 31 | 52 | |
| L | 22 | 28 | 50 |
Edmonton Oilers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 40 | 87 | 127 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | EDM @ LAK | EDM | EDM 0–1 LAK | Missed |
| 2026-02-26 | EDM @ LAK | EDM | EDM 8–1 LAK | Correct |
| 2026-01-10 | LAK @ EDM | EDM | LAK 4–3 EDM | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Kings | 90 | 44.3% |
| Edmonton Oilers | 97 | 60.5% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| C | 37 | 58 | 95 |
| D | 17 | 59 | 76 |
| C | 18 | 34 | 53 |