PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Tue, Mar 9, 10:30 PM ET
Alex Nedeljkovic · 0.896 SV%
The preseason ratings make Vegas Golden Knights 58.8% to win at home: a modest lean, worth 8.8 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project VGK for 96 points and SJS for 91.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Vegas Golden Knights a 58.8% chance to win on Tue, Mar 9. The matchup detail follows.
VGK controlled play at 5v5 last season, 55.3% of the expected goals to 40.3%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Alex Nedeljkovic (SJS) saved -14.6 goals above expected to Adin Hill's -23.2, on save percentages of 0.896 and 0.871.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Vegas Golden Knights over San Jose Sharks is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
SJS
Alex Nedeljkovic
40 games, 2025-26
VGK
Adin Hill
27 games, 2025-26
| SJS | Metric | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 40.3% | xGF% (5v5) | 55.3% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
San Jose Sharks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Macklin Celebrini | C | 39 | 60 | 99 |
 Will Smith | C | 25 | 36 | 60 |
 Mason Marchment | L | 17 | 24 | 41 |
 Tyler Toffoli | C | 19 | 22 | 41 |
Vegas Golden Knights
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitch Marner | R | 25 | 63 | 87 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| San Jose Sharks | 91 | 45.4% |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 96 | 58.1% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: VGK 11, SJS 0
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | VGK @ SJS | VGK 7, SJS 2 | VGK hit |
| 2025-12-23 | SJS @ VGK | SJS 2, VGK 7 | VGK hit |
| 2025-11-29 | SJS @ VGK | SJS 3, VGK 4 | VGK hit |
| 2025-10-09 | VGK @ SJS | VGK 4, SJS 3 | VGK hit |
| 2025-01-07 | VGK @ SJS | VGK 4, SJS 2 | VGK hit |
| 2024-12-27 | VGK @ SJS | VGK 6, SJS 3 | VGK hit |
| 2024-10-26 | SJS @ VGK | SJS 3, VGK 7 | VGK hit |
| 2024-02-19 | VGK @ SJS | VGK 4, SJS 0 | VGK hit |
 Jack Eichel | C | 27 | 55 | 82 |
|---|
 Mark Stone | R | 17 | 34 | 51 |
|---|
 Shea Theodore | D | 8 | 34 | 42 |
|---|
WPG@
VGK
