PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Thu, Mar 25, 7:00 PM ET
Elvis Merzlikins · 0.883 SV%
The preseason ratings make Columbus Blue Jackets 63.9% to win at home — a clear lean, worth 13.9 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project CBJ for 96 points and CHI for 83.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
CBJ controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.9% of the expected goals to 43.7%; CBJ's power play ran at 18.9% against a CHI kill at 83.6%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Spencer Knight (CHI) saved -12.5 goals above expected to Elvis Merzlikins's -21.9, on save percentages of 0.902 and 0.883.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Columbus Blue Jackets over Chicago Blackhawks is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
CHI
Spencer Knight
55 games, 2025-26
CBJ
Elvis Merzlikins
30 games, 2025-26
| CHI | Metric | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 43.7% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.9% |
| 45.1% | Shot share | 50.5% |
| 2.6 | Goals for / game | 3.0 |
| 3.3 | Goals against / game | 3.1 |
| 17.0% | Power play | 18.9% |
| 83.6% | Penalty kill | 76.0% |
| 46.0% | Faceoffs | 50.6% |
Chicago Blackhawks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 31 | 52 | 83 | |
| R | 18 | 36 | 54 | |
| C | 15 | 29 | 44 | |
| C | 16 | 25 | 41 |
Columbus Blue Jackets
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 18 | 49 | 67 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | CHI @ CBJ | CBJ | CHI 0–4 CBJ | Correct |
| 2026-01-30 | CBJ @ CHI | CBJ | CBJ 4–2 CHI | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Blackhawks | 83 | 25.9% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 96 | 47.6% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 25 | 33 | 58 |
| C | 18 | 28 | 45 |
| C | 14 | 23 | 37 |