Who is favoured, San Jose Sharks or Edmonton Oilers?

Edmonton Oilers, at 59.6% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers, Wed, Mar 31: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Wed, Mar 31, 8:30 PM ET

San Jose SharksSJS

91 proj. pts · 45.4% playoffs

Alex Nedeljkovic · 0.896 SV%

Bvs8:30 PM ET

Edmonton OilersEDM

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

EDM controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.0% of the expected goals to 47.0%; EDM's power play ran at 30.5% against a SJS kill at 76.4%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Alex Nedeljkovic (SJS) saved -14.6 goals above expected to Tristan Jarry's -23.1, on save percentages of 0.896 and 0.882.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Edmonton Oilers over San Jose Sharks is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic

SV%: 0.896
GSAx: -14.6
GAA: 2.87
Record: 18-14-4

40 games, 2025-26

EDM

Tristan Jarry

SV%: 0.882
GSAx: -23.1
GAA: 3.32
Record: 18-9-3

33 games, 2025-26

SJS	Metric	EDM
47.0%	xGF% (5v5)	51.0%
46.5%	Shot share	52.3%
3.0	Goals for / game	3.4
3.5	Goals against / game	3.3
21.2%	Power play	30.5%
76.4%	Penalty kill	75.9%
47.8%	Faceoffs	52.5%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

San Jose Sharks

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Macklin Celebrini	C	39	60	99
Will Smith	C	25	36	60
Mason Marchment	L	17	24	41
Tyler Toffoli	C	19	22	41

Edmonton Oilers

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Connor McDavid	C	40	87	127

Last season, head to head

ledger

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-04-08	EDM @ SJS	EDM	EDM 5–2 SJS	Correct
2026-03-17	SJS @ EDM	EDM	SJS 3–5 EDM	Correct
2026-02-28	EDM @ SJS	EDM	EDM 4–5 SJS	Missed
2026-01-29	SJS @ EDM	EDM	SJS 3–4 EDM	Correct

Season outlook

projected standings

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
San Jose Sharks	91	45.4%
Edmonton Oilers	97	60.5%