PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ET
Elvis Merzlikins · 0.883 SV%
The preseason ratings make Columbus Blue Jackets 53.0% to win at home — barely a lean at all, worth 3.0 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project CBJ for 96 points and PHI for 98.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (51.9% to 51.3%); CBJ's power play ran at 18.9% against a PHI kill at 78.7%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Dan Vladar (PHI) saved -5.5 goals above expected to Elvis Merzlikins's -21.9, on save percentages of 0.906 and 0.883.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Columbus Blue Jackets over Philadelphia Flyers is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
PHI
Dan Vladar
52 games, 2025-26
CBJ
Elvis Merzlikins
30 games, 2025-26
| PHI | Metric | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 51.3% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.9% |
| 49.5% | Shot share | 50.5% |
| 2.8 | Goals for / game | 3.0 |
| 2.9 | Goals against / game | 3.1 |
| 14.8% | Power play | 18.9% |
| 78.7% | Penalty kill | 76.0% |
| 49.6% | Faceoffs | 50.6% |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 25 | 39 | 64 | |
| R | 24 | 35 | 59 | |
| C | 19 | 31 | 50 | |
| R | 23 | 22 | 44 |
Columbus Blue Jackets
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 18 | 49 | 67 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | CBJ @ PHI | PHI | CBJ 3–2 PHI | Missed |
| 2026-03-14 | CBJ @ PHI | CBJ | CBJ 2–1 PHI | Correct |
| 2026-01-28 | PHI @ CBJ | CBJ | PHI 3–5 CBJ | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Flyers | 98 | 53.4% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 96 | 47.6% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 25 | 33 | 58 |
| C | 18 | 28 | 45 |
| C | 14 | 23 | 37 |