PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Fri, Nov 27, 3:00 PM ET
Dan Vladar · 0.906 SV%
The preseason ratings make Philadelphia Flyers 68.4% to win at home — a clear lean, worth 18.4 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project PHI for 98 points and VAN for 80.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
PHI controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.3% of the expected goals to 43.2%; PHI's power play ran at 14.8% against a VAN kill at 71.5%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Dan Vladar (PHI) saved -5.5 goals above expected to Kevin Lankinen's -44.4, on save percentages of 0.906 and 0.875.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Philadelphia Flyers over Vancouver Canucks is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
VAN
Kevin Lankinen
47 games, 2025-26
PHI
Dan Vladar
52 games, 2025-26
| VAN | Metric | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 43.2% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.3% |
| 46.5% | Shot share | 49.5% |
| 2.6 | Goals for / game | 2.8 |
| 3.8 | Goals against / game | 2.9 |
| 21.8% | Power play | 14.8% |
| 71.5% | Penalty kill | 78.7% |
| 49.3% | Faceoffs | 49.6% |
Vancouver Canucks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 23 | 42 | 65 | |
| R | 25 | 29 | 53 | |
| C | 18 | 28 | 46 | |
| D | 7 | 36 | 43 |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 25 | 39 | 64 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | PHI @ VAN | PHI | PHI 6–3 VAN | Correct |
| 2025-12-22 | VAN @ PHI | PHI | VAN 2–5 PHI | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Canucks | 80 | 21.8% |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 98 | 53.4% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 24 | 35 | 59 |
| C | 19 | 31 | 50 |
| R | 23 | 22 | 44 |