PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Tue, Dec 8, 8:00 PM ET
Connor Hellebuyck · 0.895 SV%
The preseason ratings make Philadelphia Flyers 52.1% to win on the road — barely a lean at all, worth 2.1 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project PHI for 98 points and WPG for 89.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
PHI controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.3% of the expected goals to 47.7%; PHI's power play ran at 14.8% against a WPG kill at 77.6%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Dan Vladar (PHI) saved -5.5 goals above expected to Connor Hellebuyck's -22.8, on save percentages of 0.906 and 0.895.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Philadelphia Flyers over Winnipeg Jets is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
PHI
Dan Vladar
52 games, 2025-26
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck
57 games, 2025-26
| PHI | Metric | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 51.3% | xGF% (5v5) | 47.7% |
| 49.5% | Shot share | 48.7% |
| 2.8 | Goals for / game | 2.8 |
| 2.9 | Goals against / game | 3.1 |
| 14.8% | Power play | 18.5% |
| 78.7% | Penalty kill | 77.6% |
| 49.6% | Faceoffs | 51.1% |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 25 | 39 | 64 | |
| R | 24 | 35 | 59 | |
| C | 19 | 31 | 50 | |
| R | 23 | 22 | 44 |
Winnipeg Jets
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 36 | 46 | 82 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | PHI @ WPG | WPG | PHI 7–1 WPG | Missed |
| 2025-10-16 | WPG @ PHI | WPG | WPG 5–2 PHI | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Flyers | 98 | 53.4% |
| Winnipeg Jets | 89 | 38.0% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| C | 28 | 45 | 73 |
| C | 26 | 31 | 57 |
| D | 11 | 37 | 48 |