PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Fri, Dec 18, 7:00 PM ET
John Gibson · 0.901 SV%
The preseason ratings make Philadelphia Flyers 59.3% to win at home: a modest lean, worth 9.3 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project PHI for 98 points and DET for 92.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Philadelphia Flyers a 59.3% chance to win on Fri, Dec 18. The matchup detail follows.
DET controlled play at 5v5 last season, 56.2% of the expected goals to 39.5%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Dan Vladar (PHI) saved -5.5 goals above expected to John Gibson's -12.5, on save percentages of 0.906 and 0.901.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Philadelphia Flyers over Detroit Red Wings is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
DET
John Gibson
57 games, 2025-26
PHI
Dan Vladar
52 games, 2025-26
| DET | Metric | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 56.2% | xGF% (5v5) | 39.5% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Detroit Red Wings
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucas Raymond | L | 29 | 52 | 81 |
 Alex DeBrincat | R | 35 | 39 | 74 |
 Moritz Seider | D | 9 | 43 | 52 |
 Viktor Arvidsson | L | 19 | 21 | 39 |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Travis Konecny | R | 25 | 39 | 64 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Red Wings | 92 | 38.1% |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 98 | 53.4% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: PHI 3, DET 4
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | PHI @ DET | PHI 1, DET 2 | DET hit |
| 2026-04-09 | PHI @ DET | PHI 3, DET 6 | DET hit |
| 2026-04-02 | DET @ PHI | DET 4, PHI 2 | PHI missed |
| 2026-03-28 | PHI @ DET | PHI 5, DET 3 | PHI hit |
| 2025-01-21 | DET @ PHI | DET 1, PHI 2 | PHI hit |
| 2024-12-18 | PHI @ DET | PHI 4, DET 6 | DET hit |
| 2024-12-12 | DET @ PHI | DET 1, PHI 4 | PHI hit |
 Matvei Michkov | R | 24 | 35 | 59 |
|---|
 Trevor Zegras | C | 19 | 31 | 50 |
|---|
 Owen Tippett | R | 23 | 22 | 44 |
|---|
PHI@
CHI
