PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Tue, Dec 22, 7:00 PM ET
Elvis Merzlikins · 0.883 SV%
The preseason ratings make Columbus Blue Jackets 50.6% to win at home — barely a lean at all, worth 0.6 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project CBJ for 96 points and MTL for 102.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
CBJ controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.9% of the expected goals to 50.0%; CBJ's power play ran at 18.9% against a MTL kill at 77.5%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Elvis Merzlikins (CBJ) saved -21.9 goals above expected to Samuel Montembeault's -23.9, on save percentages of 0.883 and 0.872.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Columbus Blue Jackets over Montréal Canadiens is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
MTL
Samuel Montembeault
25 games, 2025-26
CBJ
Elvis Merzlikins
30 games, 2025-26
| MTL | Metric | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.9% |
| 48.3% | Shot share | 50.5% |
| 3.4 | Goals for / game | 3.0 |
| 3.0 | Goals against / game | 3.1 |
| 23.5% | Power play | 18.9% |
| 77.5% | Penalty kill | 76.0% |
| 51.4% | Faceoffs | 50.6% |
Montréal Canadiens
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 29 | 60 | 90 | |
| D | 11 | 67 | 77 | |
| R | 41 | 35 | 76 | |
| L | 24 | 38 | 62 |
Columbus Blue Jackets
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 18 | 49 | 67 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | CBJ @ MTL | MTL | CBJ 5–2 MTL | Missed |
| 2026-03-26 | CBJ @ MTL | MTL | CBJ 1–2 MTL | Correct |
| 2025-11-17 | MTL @ CBJ | CBJ | MTL 4–5 CBJ | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Montréal Canadiens | 102 | 61.2% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 96 | 47.6% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 25 | 33 | 58 |
| C | 18 | 28 | 45 |
| C | 14 | 23 | 37 |