Who is favoured, Toronto Maple Leafs or Montréal Canadiens?

Montréal Canadiens, at 66.5% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens, Sat, Dec 26: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Sat, Dec 26, 7:00 PM ET

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

85 proj. pts · 22.9% playoffs

Sergei Bobrovsky · 0.877 SV%

Bvs7:00 PM ET

Montréal CanadiensMTL

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

MTL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 50.0% of the expected goals to 45.9%; MTL's power play ran at 23.5% against a TOR kill at 81.2%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Samuel Montembeault (MTL) saved -23.9 goals above expected to Sergei Bobrovsky's -41.5, on save percentages of 0.872 and 0.877.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Montréal Canadiens over Toronto Maple Leafs is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

TOR

Sergei Bobrovsky

SV%: 0.877
GSAx: -41.5
GAA: 3.07
Record: 27-23-1

52 games, 2025-26

MTL

Samuel Montembeault

SV%: 0.872
GSAx: -23.9
GAA: 3.43
Record: 10-8-4

25 games, 2025-26

TOR	Metric	MTL
45.9%	xGF% (5v5)	50.0%
44.8%	Shot share	48.3%
3.1	Goals for / game	3.4
3.6	Goals against / game	3.0
21.3%	Power play	23.5%
81.2%	Penalty kill	77.5%
54.2%	Faceoffs	51.4%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Auston Matthews	C	40	39	79
William Nylander	R	31	43	74
Matthew Knies	L	24	37	61
John Tavares	C	25	33	58

Montréal Canadiens

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Nick Suzuki	C	29	60	90

Last season, head to head

ledger

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-03-10	TOR @ MTL	MTL	TOR 1–3 MTL	Correct
2025-12-06	MTL @ TOR	TOR	MTL 3–2 TOR	Missed
2025-11-22	TOR @ MTL	MTL	TOR 2–5 MTL	Correct
2025-10-08	MTL @ TOR	TOR	MTL 2–5 TOR	Correct

Season outlook

projected standings

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Toronto Maple Leafs	85	22.9%
Montréal Canadiens	102	61.2%