PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Tue, Dec 29, 9:00 PM ET
Karel Vejmelka · 0.897 SV%
The preseason ratings make Utah Mammoth 58.2% to win at home — a modest lean, worth 8.2 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project UTA for 99 points and NJD for 94.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
UTA controlled play at 5v5 last season, 52.6% of the expected goals to 49.0%; UTA's power play ran at 19.1% against a NJD kill at 79.3%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Jake Allen (NJD) saved -7.2 goals above expected to Karel Vejmelka's -22.7, on save percentages of 0.904 and 0.897.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Utah Mammoth over New Jersey Devils is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
NJD
Jake Allen
37 games, 2025-26
UTA
Karel Vejmelka
64 games, 2025-26
| NJD | Metric | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 49.0% | xGF% (5v5) | 52.6% |
| 51.9% | Shot share | 51.2% |
| 2.8 | Goals for / game | 3.3 |
| 3.1 | Goals against / game | 3.0 |
| 21.9% | Power play | 19.1% |
| 79.3% | Penalty kill | 78.3% |
| 50.5% | Faceoffs | 49.1% |
New Jersey Devils
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 31 | 53 | 84 | |
| L | 22 | 51 | 72 | |
| C | 29 | 40 | 68 | |
| D | 8 | 38 | 47 |
Utah Mammoth
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 27 | 53 | 80 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | UTA @ NJD | UTA | UTA 1–4 NJD | Missed |
| 2025-12-19 | NJD @ UTA | UTA | NJD 2–1 UTA | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| New Jersey Devils | 94 | 42.3% |
| Utah Mammoth | 99 | 60.8% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 33 | 33 | 66 |
| C | 29 | 33 | 61 |
| C | 22 | 37 | 59 |