PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Sat, Jan 2, 7:00 PM ET
Filip Gustavsson · 0.904 SV%
The preseason ratings make Minnesota Wild 59.8% to win at home — a modest lean, worth 9.8 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project MIN for 101 points and STL for 94.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (51.2% to 50.3%); MIN's power play ran at 24.3% against a STL kill at 76.7%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Filip Gustavsson (MIN) saved -9.1 goals above expected to Jordan Binnington's -37.1, on save percentages of 0.904 and 0.873.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Minnesota Wild over St. Louis Blues is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
STL
Jordan Binnington
41 games, 2025-26
MIN
Filip Gustavsson
50 games, 2025-26
| STL | Metric | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 50.3% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.2% |
| 47.8% | Shot share | 49.5% |
| 2.8 | Goals for / game | 3.3 |
| 3.1 | Goals against / game | 3.0 |
| 17.6% | Power play | 24.3% |
| 76.7% | Penalty kill | 76.9% |
| 49.4% | Faceoffs | 47.0% |
St. Louis Blues
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 22 | 50 | 72 | |
| R | 22 | 31 | 52 | |
| L | 19 | 30 | 49 | |
| C | 20 | 29 | 49 |
Minnesota Wild
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 35 | 45 | 80 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | MIN @ STL | MIN | MIN 3–6 STL | Missed |
| 2026-03-01 | STL @ MIN | MIN | STL 3–1 MIN | Missed |
| 2025-10-09 | MIN @ STL | STL | MIN 5–0 STL | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Blues | 94 | 50.0% |
| Minnesota Wild | 101 | 65.5% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| L | 38 | 41 | 79 |
| D | 12 | 67 | 78 |
| D | 13 | 35 | 47 |