PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Sat, Jan 16, 6:00 PM ET
Adin Hill · 0.871 SV%
The preseason ratings make Florida Panthers 53.2% to win at home: barely a lean at all, worth 3.2 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project FLA for 92 points and VGK for 96.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Florida Panthers a 53.2% chance to win on Sat, Jan 16. The matchup detail follows.
VGK controlled play at 5v5 last season, 55.3% of the expected goals to 53.7%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Adin Hill (VGK) saved -23.2 goals above expected to Jacob Markstrom's -29.8, on save percentages of 0.871 and 0.883.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Florida Panthers over Vegas Golden Knights is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
VGK
Adin Hill
27 games, 2025-26
FLA
Jacob Markstrom
44 games, 2025-26
| VGK | Metric | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 55.3% | xGF% (5v5) | 53.7% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Vegas Golden Knights
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitch Marner | R | 25 | 63 | 87 |
 Jack Eichel | C | 27 | 55 | 82 |
 Mark Stone | R | 17 | 34 | 51 |
 Shea Theodore | D | 8 | 34 | 42 |
Florida Panthers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aleksander Barkov | C | 23 | 50 | 72 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | 96 | 58.1% |
| Florida Panthers | 92 | 38.1% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: FLA 5, VGK 1
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-10 | FLA @ VGK | FLA 3, VGK 2 | VGK missed |
| 2025-10-25 | VGK @ FLA | VGK 0, FLA 3 | FLA hit |
| 2025-01-26 | FLA @ VGK | FLA 1, VGK 4 | VGK hit |
| 2024-10-19 | VGK @ FLA | VGK 3, FLA 4 | FLA hit |
| 2024-01-04 | FLA @ VGK | FLA 4, VGK 1 | VGK missed |
| 2023-12-23 | VGK @ FLA | VGK 2, FLA 4 | FLA hit |
 Brady Tkachuk | L | 29 | 38 | 67 |
|---|
 Sam Reinhart | C | 31 | 34 | 65 |
|---|
 Matthew Tkachuk | L | 23 | 41 | 63 |
|---|
LAK@
FLA
