PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Thu, Jan 28, 7:30 PM ET
Dan Vladar · 0.906 SV%
The preseason ratings make Philadelphia Flyers 61.4% to win at home — a clear lean, worth 11.4 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project PHI for 98 points and LAK for 90.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (51.3% to 51.7%); PHI's power play ran at 14.8% against a LAK kill at 75.3%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Dan Vladar (PHI) saved -5.5 goals above expected to Darcy Kuemper's -22.9, on save percentages of 0.906 and 0.891.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Philadelphia Flyers over Los Angeles Kings is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
LAK
Darcy Kuemper
50 games, 2025-26
PHI
Dan Vladar
52 games, 2025-26
| LAK | Metric | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 51.7% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.3% |
| 50.5% | Shot share | 49.5% |
| 2.6 | Goals for / game | 2.8 |
| 2.9 | Goals against / game | 2.9 |
| 17.1% | Power play | 14.8% |
| 75.3% | Penalty kill | 78.7% |
| 49.8% | Faceoffs | 49.6% |
Los Angeles Kings
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 25 | 47 | 72 | |
| R | 27 | 31 | 58 | |
| R | 22 | 31 | 52 | |
| L | 22 | 28 | 50 |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 25 | 39 | 64 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | PHI @ LAK | LAK | PHI 5–3 LAK | Missed |
| 2026-01-31 | LAK @ PHI | PHI | LAK 3–2 PHI | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Kings | 90 | 44.3% |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 98 | 53.4% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 24 | 35 | 59 |
| C | 19 | 31 | 50 |
| R | 23 | 22 | 44 |