PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Sun, Jan 31, 12:00 PM ET
Dan Vladar · 0.906 SV%
The preseason ratings make Pittsburgh Penguins 54.1% to win at home: barely a lean at all, worth 4.1 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project PIT for 97 points and PHI for 98.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Pittsburgh Penguins a 54.1% chance to win on Sun, Jan 31. The matchup detail follows.
PIT controlled play at 5v5 last season, 53.8% of the expected goals to 39.5%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Dan Vladar (PHI) saved -5.5 goals above expected to Arturs Silovs's -23.2, on save percentages of 0.906 and 0.888.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Pittsburgh Penguins over Philadelphia Flyers is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
PHI
Dan Vladar
52 games, 2025-26
PIT
Arturs Silovs
39 games, 2025-26
| PHI | Metric | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 39.5% | xGF% (5v5) | 53.8% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Travis Konecny | R | 25 | 39 | 64 |
 Matvei Michkov | R | 24 | 35 | 59 |
 Trevor Zegras | C | 19 | 31 | 50 |
 Owen Tippett | R | 23 | 22 | 44 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sidney Crosby | C | 29 | 47 | 76 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Flyers | 98 | 53.4% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 97 | 50.9% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: PIT 5, PHI 4
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | PIT @ PHI | PIT 7, PHI 0 | PHI missed |
| 2026-03-07 | PHI @ PIT | PHI 4, PIT 3 | PIT missed |
| 2026-01-15 | PHI @ PIT | PHI 3, PIT 6 | PIT hit |
| 2025-12-01 | PIT @ PHI | PIT 5, PHI 1 | PHI missed |
| 2025-10-28 | PIT @ PHI | PIT 3, PHI 4 | PHI hit |
| 2025-02-27 | PHI @ PIT | PHI 4, PIT 5 | PIT hit |
| 2025-02-25 | PIT @ PHI | PIT 1, PHI 6 | PHI hit |
| 2025-02-08 | PIT @ PHI | PIT 2, PHI 3 | PHI hit |
 Evgeni Malkin | C | 21 | 39 | 59 |
|---|
 Erik Karlsson | D | 11 | 38 | 49 |
|---|
 Bryan Rust | R | 21 | 26 | 47 |
|---|
PIT@
SEA
