Who is favoured, Montréal Canadiens or Edmonton Oilers?

Edmonton Oilers, at 50.9% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Montréal Canadiens at Edmonton Oilers, Sat, Jan 30: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Sat, Jan 30, 7:00 PM ET

Montréal CanadiensMTL

102 proj. pts · 61.2% playoffs

Samuel Montembeault · 0.872 SV%

Cvs7:00 PM ET

Edmonton OilersEDM

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

EDM controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.0% of the expected goals to 50.0%; EDM's power play ran at 30.5% against a MTL kill at 77.5%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Tristan Jarry (EDM) saved -23.1 goals above expected to Samuel Montembeault's -23.9, on save percentages of 0.882 and 0.872.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Edmonton Oilers over Montréal Canadiens is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

MTL

Samuel Montembeault

SV%: 0.872
GSAx: -23.9
GAA: 3.43
Record: 10-8-4

25 games, 2025-26

EDM

Tristan Jarry

SV%: 0.882
GSAx: -23.1
GAA: 3.32
Record: 18-9-3

33 games, 2025-26

MTL	Metric	EDM
50.0%	xGF% (5v5)	51.0%
48.3%	Shot share	52.3%
3.4	Goals for / game	3.4
3.0	Goals against / game	3.3
23.5%	Power play	30.5%
77.5%	Penalty kill	75.9%
51.4%	Faceoffs	52.5%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Montréal Canadiens

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Nick Suzuki	C	29	60	90
Lane Hutson	D	11	67	77
Cole Caufield	R	41	35	76
Juraj Slafkovský	L	24	38	62

Edmonton Oilers

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Connor McDavid	C	40	87	127

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2025-12-14	EDM @ MTL	MTL	EDM 1–4 MTL	Correct
2025-10-23	MTL @ EDM	EDM	MTL 5–6 EDM	Correct

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Montréal Canadiens	102	61.2%
Edmonton Oilers	97	60.5%

Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.

The read

In goal

Last season, side by side

Who drives it

Schedule around it

Last season, head to head

Season outlook