PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Mon, Feb 15, 6:00 PM ET
Igor Shesterkin · 0.912 SV%
The preseason ratings make Buffalo Sabres 54.2% to win on the road — barely a lean at all, worth 4.2 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project BUF for 104 points and NYR for 91.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
BUF controlled play at 5v5 last season, 50.7% of the expected goals to 48.0%; BUF's power play ran at 19.7% against a NYR kill at 79.9%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Igor Shesterkin (NYR) saved 2.2 goals above expected to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen's -1.3, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.910.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Buffalo Sabres over New York Rangers is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
BUF
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
35 games, 2025-26
NYR
Igor Shesterkin
51 games, 2025-26
| BUF | Metric | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 50.7% | xGF% (5v5) | 48.0% |
| 49.7% | Shot share | 46.6% |
| 3.4 | Goals for / game | 2.9 |
| 2.9 | Goals against / game | 3.0 |
| 19.7% | Power play | 24.6% |
| 81.0% | Penalty kill | 79.9% |
| 45.9% | Faceoffs | 54.5% |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 35 | 33 | 68 | |
| D | 18 | 50 | 68 | |
| C | 14 | 30 | 44 | |
| R | 17 | 26 | 43 |
New York Rangers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 11 | 51 | 61 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | BUF @ NYR | BUF | BUF 5–3 NYR | Correct |
| 2026-01-08 | BUF @ NYR | BUF | BUF 5–2 NYR | Correct |
| 2025-10-09 | NYR @ BUF | BUF | NYR 4–0 BUF | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Sabres | 104 | 67.2% |
| New York Rangers | 91 | 37.5% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| C | 24 | 37 | 61 |
| C | 19 | 37 | 56 |
| R | 32 | 22 | 54 |