PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Wed, Feb 17, 9:00 PM ET
Karel Vejmelka · 0.897 SV%
The preseason ratings make Utah Mammoth 56.8% to win at home — a modest lean, worth 6.8 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project UTA for 99 points and CBJ for 96.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (52.6% to 51.9%); UTA's power play ran at 19.1% against a CBJ kill at 76.0%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Elvis Merzlikins (CBJ) saved -21.9 goals above expected to Karel Vejmelka's -22.7, on save percentages of 0.883 and 0.897.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Utah Mammoth over Columbus Blue Jackets is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
CBJ
Elvis Merzlikins
30 games, 2025-26
UTA
Karel Vejmelka
64 games, 2025-26
| CBJ | Metric | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 51.9% | xGF% (5v5) | 52.6% |
| 50.5% | Shot share | 51.2% |
| 3.0 | Goals for / game | 3.3 |
| 3.1 | Goals against / game | 3.0 |
| 18.9% | Power play | 19.1% |
| 76.0% | Penalty kill | 78.3% |
| 50.6% | Faceoffs | 49.1% |
Columbus Blue Jackets
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 18 | 49 | 67 | |
| R | 25 | 33 | 58 | |
| C | 18 | 28 | 45 | |
| C | 14 | 23 | 37 |
Utah Mammoth
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 27 | 53 | 80 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | UTA @ CBJ | CBJ | UTA 5–4 CBJ | Missed |
| 2026-01-11 | CBJ @ UTA | UTA | CBJ 3–2 UTA | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 96 | 47.6% |
| Utah Mammoth | 99 | 60.8% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 33 | 33 | 66 |
| C | 29 | 33 | 61 |
| C | 22 | 37 | 59 |