Who is favoured, Edmonton Oilers or Calgary Flames?

Edmonton Oilers, at 50.6% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames, Wed, Mar 3: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Wed, Mar 3, 8:30 PM ET

Edmonton OilersEDM

97 proj. pts · 60.5% playoffs

Tristan Jarry · 0.882 SV%

Cvs8:30 PM ET

Calgary FlamesCGY

89 proj. pts · 41.6% playoffs

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

EDM controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.0% of the expected goals to 46.1%; EDM's power play ran at 30.5% against a CGY kill at 80.4%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Dustin Wolf (CGY) saved -17.8 goals above expected to Tristan Jarry's -23.1, on save percentages of 0.899 and 0.882.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Edmonton Oilers over Calgary Flames is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

EDM

Tristan Jarry

SV%: 0.882
GSAx: -23.1
GAA: 3.32
Record: 18-9-3

33 games, 2025-26

CGY

Dustin Wolf

SV%: 0.899
GSAx: -17.8
GAA: 3.01
Record: 23-29-3

57 games, 2025-26

EDM	Metric	CGY
51.0%	xGF% (5v5)	46.1%
52.3%	Shot share	48.4%
3.4	Goals for / game	2.5
3.3	Goals against / game	3.1
30.5%	Power play	16.2%
75.9%	Penalty kill	80.4%
52.5%	Faceoffs	49.3%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Edmonton Oilers

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Connor McDavid	C	40	87	127
Leon Draisaitl	C	37	58	95
Evan Bouchard	D	17	59	76
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	C	18	34	53

Calgary Flames

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Jonathan Huberdeau	L	15	29	45

Last season, head to head

ledger

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-02-04	EDM @ CGY	CGY	EDM 3–4 CGY	Correct
2025-12-27	EDM @ CGY	EDM	EDM 2–3 CGY	Missed
2025-12-23	CGY @ EDM	EDM	CGY 1–5 EDM	Correct
2025-10-08	CGY @ EDM	EDM	CGY 5–4 EDM	Missed

Season outlook

projected standings

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Edmonton Oilers	97	60.5%
Calgary Flames	89	41.6%