PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Tue, Mar 23, 7:00 PM ET
Jake Allen · 0.904 SV%
The preseason ratings make New Jersey Devils 51.6% to win at home — barely a lean at all, worth 1.6 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project NJD for 94 points and PHI for 98.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
PHI controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.3% of the expected goals to 49.0%; NJD's power play ran at 21.9% against a PHI kill at 78.7%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Dan Vladar (PHI) saved -5.5 goals above expected to Jake Allen's -7.2, on save percentages of 0.906 and 0.904.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. New Jersey Devils over Philadelphia Flyers is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
PHI
Dan Vladar
52 games, 2025-26
NJD
Jake Allen
37 games, 2025-26
| PHI | Metric | NJD |
|---|---|---|
| 51.3% | xGF% (5v5) | 49.0% |
| 49.5% | Shot share | 51.9% |
| 2.8 | Goals for / game | 2.8 |
| 2.9 | Goals against / game | 3.1 |
| 14.8% | Power play | 21.9% |
| 78.7% | Penalty kill | 79.3% |
| 49.6% | Faceoffs | 50.5% |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 25 | 39 | 64 | |
| R | 24 | 35 | 59 | |
| C | 19 | 31 | 50 | |
| R | 23 | 22 | 44 |
New Jersey Devils
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 31 | 53 | 84 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | PHI @ NJD | NJD | PHI 5–1 NJD | Missed |
| 2025-11-29 | PHI @ NJD | NJD | PHI 5–3 NJD | Missed |
| 2025-11-22 | NJD @ PHI | NJD | NJD 3–6 PHI | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Flyers | 98 | 53.4% |
| New Jersey Devils | 94 | 42.3% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| L | 22 | 51 | 72 |
| C | 29 | 40 | 68 |
| D | 8 | 38 | 47 |