PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
Final · Mon, Oct 5, 8:00 PM ET
Jake Oettinger · 0.899 SV%
The preseason ratings make Dallas Stars 64.0% to win at home: a clear lean, worth 14.1 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project DAL for 103 points and SJS for 91.
The model leaned Dallas Stars at 64.0%.
DAL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.2% of the expected goals to 47.0%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Jake Oettinger (DAL) saved -14.5 goals above expected to Alex Nedeljkovic's -14.6, on save percentages of 0.899 and 0.896.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Dallas Stars over San Jose Sharks is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
SJS
Alex Nedeljkovic
40 games, 2025-26
DAL
Jake Oettinger
54 games, 2025-26
| SJS | Metric | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 47.0% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.2% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
San Jose Sharks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Macklin Celebrini | C | 39 | 60 | 99 |
 Will Smith | C | 25 | 36 | 60 |
 Mason Marchment | L | 17 | 24 | 41 |
 Tyler Toffoli | C | 19 | 22 | 41 |
Dallas Stars
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jason Robertson | L | 37 | 49 | 86 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | DAL @ SJS | DAL | DAL 4–5 SJS | Missed |
| 2025-12-18 | DAL @ SJS | DAL | DAL 5–3 SJS | Correct |
| 2025-12-05 | SJS @ DAL | DAL | SJS 1–4 DAL | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| San Jose Sharks | 91 | 45.4% |
| Dallas Stars | 103 | 70.4% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
 Mikko Rantanen | R | 30 | 55 | 85 |
|---|
 Wyatt Johnston | C | 42 | 42 | 84 |
|---|
 Roope Hintz | C | 22 | 32 | 54 |
|---|
COL@
DAL
