Chicago Blackhawks at Buffalo Sabres

BUF controlled play at 5v5 last season, 50.7% of the expected goals to 43.7%; BUF's power play ran at 19.7% against a CHI kill at 83.6%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF) saved -1.3 goals above expected to Spencer Knight's -12.5, on save percentages of 0.910 and 0.902.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Buffalo Sabres over Chicago Blackhawks is where it starts, not where it ends.

Best posted price per side across 4 books, taken Sep 17. The percentages beside them are what those prices imply with the book’s margin removed.

Total 5.5 · over -130 at DraftKings · under +120 at Bovada. No lean either way: the preseason forecast has no goal model, so the model’s total publishes with the slate.

This is a rating forecast against a posted price, not a bet. No stake is sized and nothing here enters the graded ledger. The full model read publishes inside seven days of puck drop and replaces these numbers.

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

CHI

Spencer Knight

SV%

0.902

GSAx

-12.5

GAA

2.82

Record

19-25-11

55 games, 2025-26

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

SV%

0.910

GSAx

-1.3

GAA

2.52

Record

22-9-3

35 games, 2025-26