PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Sat, Oct 10, 7:00 PM ET
Spencer Knight · 0.902 SV%
The preseason ratings make Carolina Hurricanes 60.9% to win on the road — a clear lean, worth 10.9 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project CAR for 105 points and CHI for 83.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
CAR controlled play at 5v5 last season, 56.5% of the expected goals to 43.7%; CAR's power play ran at 23.4% against a CHI kill at 83.6%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Spencer Knight (CHI) saved -12.5 goals above expected to Brandon Bussi's -14.9, on save percentages of 0.902 and 0.895.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Carolina Hurricanes over Chicago Blackhawks is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
CAR
Brandon Bussi
39 games, 2025-26
CHI
Spencer Knight
55 games, 2025-26
| CAR | Metric | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 56.5% | xGF% (5v5) | 43.7% |
| 57.3% | Shot share | 45.1% |
| 3.5 | Goals for / game | 2.6 |
| 2.7 | Goals against / game | 3.3 |
| 23.4% | Power play | 17.0% |
| 82.7% | Penalty kill | 83.6% |
| 49.8% | Faceoffs | 46.0% |
Carolina Hurricanes
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 29 | 47 | 76 | |
| R | 33 | 38 | 71 | |
| R | 26 | 37 | 63 | |
| L | 22 | 36 | 58 |
Chicago Blackhawks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 31 | 52 | 83 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | CAR @ CHI | CAR | CAR 7–2 CHI | Correct |
| 2026-01-22 | CHI @ CAR | CAR | CHI 5–4 CAR | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 105 | 69.3% |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 83 | 25.9% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 18 | 36 | 54 |
| C | 15 | 29 | 44 |
| C | 16 | 25 | 41 |