PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
Final · Sat, Oct 3, 7:00 PM ET
Arturs Silovs · 0.888 SV%
The preseason ratings make Pittsburgh Penguins 51.7% to win at home: barely a lean at all, worth 1.7 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project PIT for 97 points and MTL for 102.
The model leaned Pittsburgh Penguins at 51.7%.
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (50.9% to 50.0%).
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Arturs Silovs (PIT) saved -23.2 goals above expected to Samuel Montembeault's -23.9, on save percentages of 0.888 and 0.872.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Pittsburgh Penguins over Montréal Canadiens is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
MTL
Samuel Montembeault
25 games, 2025-26
PIT
Arturs Silovs
39 games, 2025-26
| MTL | Metric | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | xGF% (5v5) | 50.9% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Montréal Canadiens
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nick Suzuki | C | 29 | 60 | 90 |
 Lane Hutson | D | 11 | 67 | 77 |
 Cole Caufield | R | 41 | 35 | 76 |
 Juraj Slafkovský | L | 24 | 38 | 62 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sidney Crosby | C | 29 | 47 | 76 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | MTL @ PIT | MTL | MTL 4–5 PIT | Missed |
| 2025-12-20 | PIT @ MTL | MTL | PIT 0–4 MTL | Correct |
| 2025-12-11 | MTL @ PIT | PIT | MTL 4–2 PIT | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Montréal Canadiens | 102 | 61.2% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 97 | 50.9% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
 Evgeni Malkin | C | 21 | 39 | 59 |
|---|
 Erik Karlsson | D | 11 | 38 | 49 |
|---|
 Bryan Rust | R | 21 | 26 | 47 |
|---|
PIT@
CBJ
