Who is favoured, Montréal Canadiens or Pittsburgh Penguins?

Pittsburgh Penguins, at 51.7% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Montréal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins, Sat, Oct 3: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Sat, Oct 3, 7:00 PM ET

Montréal CanadiensMTL

102 proj. pts · 61.2% playoffs

Samuel Montembeault · 0.872 SV%

Cvs7:00 PM ET

Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (50.9% to 50.0%); PIT's power play ran at 23.5% against a MTL kill at 77.5%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Arturs Silovs (PIT) saved -23.2 goals above expected to Samuel Montembeault's -23.9, on save percentages of 0.888 and 0.872.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Pittsburgh Penguins over Montréal Canadiens is where it starts, not where it ends.

The market

opening-week board

Best posted price per side across 3 books, taken Sep 17. The percentages beside them are what those prices imply with the book’s margin removed.

Side	Best price	Book	Market (no vig)	Forecast	Gap
MTL	-110	BetMGM	50.4%	48.3%	-2.0 pts
PIT	-105	Caesars	49.6%	51.7%	+2.0 pts

Total 6.0 · over -115 at BetMGM · under -105 at BetMGM. No lean either way: the preseason forecast has no goal model, so the model’s total publishes with the slate.

This is a rating forecast against a posted price, not a bet. No stake is sized and nothing here enters the graded ledger. The full model read publishes inside seven days of puck drop and replaces these numbers.