Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers

at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (51.3% to 50.9%); PHI's power play ran at 14.8% against a PIT kill at 81.9%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Dan Vladar (PHI) saved -5.5 goals above expected to Arturs Silovs's -23.2, on save percentages of 0.906 and 0.888.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Philadelphia Flyers over Pittsburgh Penguins is where it starts, not where it ends.

Best posted price per side across 9 books, taken Sep 17. The percentages beside them are what those prices imply with the book’s margin removed.

Total 5.5 · over -120 at DraftKings · under +107 at BetOnline.ag. No lean either way: the preseason forecast has no goal model, so the model’s total publishes with the slate.

This is a rating forecast against a posted price, not a bet. No stake is sized and nothing here enters the graded ledger. The full model read publishes inside seven days of puck drop and replaces these numbers.

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

PIT

Arturs Silovs

SV%

0.888

GSAx

-23.2

GAA

3.07

Record

19-12-8

39 games, 2025-26

PHI

Dan Vladar

SV%

0.906

GSAx

-5.5

GAA

2.42

Record

29-14-7

52 games, 2025-26