PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
Final · Sat, Oct 10, 7:00 PM ET
Arturs Silovs · 0.888 SV%
The preseason ratings make Pittsburgh Penguins 51.1% to win at home: barely a lean at all, worth 1.1 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project PIT for 97 points and DAL for 103.
The model leaned Pittsburgh Penguins at 51.1%.
PuckCast had Pittsburgh Penguins at 51.1% to win this game on Sat, Oct 10. The matchup detail follows.
at 5v5 last season the two were level on expected goals (50.9% to 51.2%).
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Jake Oettinger (DAL) saved -14.5 goals above expected to Arturs Silovs's -23.2, on save percentages of 0.899 and 0.888.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Pittsburgh Penguins over Dallas Stars is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
DAL
Jake Oettinger
54 games, 2025-26
PIT
Arturs Silovs
39 games, 2025-26
| DAL | Metric | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 51.2% | xGF% (5v5) | 50.9% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Dallas Stars
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jason Robertson | L | 37 | 49 | 86 |
 Mikko Rantanen | R | 30 | 55 | 85 |
 Wyatt Johnston | C | 42 | 42 | 84 |
 Roope Hintz | C | 22 | 32 | 54 |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sidney Crosby | C | 29 | 47 | 76 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | DAL @ PIT | DAL | DAL 6–3 PIT | Correct |
| 2025-12-07 | PIT @ DAL | DAL | PIT 2–3 DAL | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Stars | 103 | 70.4% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 97 | 50.9% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
 Evgeni Malkin | C | 21 | 39 | 59 |
|---|
 Erik Karlsson | D | 11 | 38 | 49 |
|---|
 Bryan Rust | R | 21 | 26 | 47 |
|---|
PIT@
VGK
