PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Thu, Oct 8, 7:00 PM ET
Dan Vladar · 0.906 SV%
The preseason ratings make Ottawa Senators 56.5% to win at home: a modest lean, worth 6.5 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project OTT for 100 points and PHI for 98.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Ottawa Senators a 56.5% chance to win on Thu, Oct 8. The matchup detail follows.
OTT controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.3% of the expected goals to 39.5%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Dan Vladar (PHI) saved -5.5 goals above expected to Linus Ullmark's -23.2, on save percentages of 0.906 and 0.891.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Ottawa Senators over Philadelphia Flyers is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
PHI
Dan Vladar
52 games, 2025-26
OTT
Linus Ullmark
49 games, 2025-26
| PHI | Metric | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 39.5% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.3% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Travis Konecny | R | 25 | 39 | 64 |
 Matvei Michkov | R | 24 | 35 | 59 |
 Trevor Zegras | C | 19 | 31 | 50 |
 Owen Tippett | R | 23 | 22 | 44 |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tim Stützle | C | 32 | 57 | 90 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Flyers | 98 | 53.4% |
| Ottawa Senators | 100 | 58.0% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: OTT 7, PHI 2
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | OTT @ PHI | OTT 2, PHI 1 | OTT hit |
| 2025-11-08 | OTT @ PHI | OTT 3, PHI 2 | PHI missed |
| 2025-10-23 | PHI @ OTT | PHI 1, OTT 2 | OTT hit |
| 2025-04-13 | PHI @ OTT | PHI 3, OTT 4 | OTT hit |
| 2025-03-11 | OTT @ PHI | OTT 5, PHI 2 | PHI missed |
| 2024-11-14 | PHI @ OTT | PHI 5, OTT 4 | OTT missed |
| 2024-03-02 | OTT @ PHI | OTT 2, PHI 4 | PHI hit |
| 2024-01-21 | OTT @ PHI | OTT 5, PHI 3 | PHI missed |
 Drake Batherson | R | 26 | 37 | 63 |
|---|
 Jake Sanderson | D | 12 | 42 | 54 |
|---|
 Claude Giroux | R | 16 | 37 | 53 |
|---|
STL@
OTT
