PuckCast Edge
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Final · Tue, Oct 6, 7:00 PM ET
John Gibson · 0.901 SV%
The preseason ratings make Ottawa Senators 50.9% to win on the road: barely a lean at all, worth 0.9 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project OTT for 100 points and DET for 92.
The model leaned Ottawa Senators at 50.9%.
PuckCast had Ottawa Senators at 50.9% to win this game on Tue, Oct 6. The matchup detail follows.
OTT controlled play at 5v5 last season, 55.4% of the expected goals to 48.4%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season John Gibson (DET) saved -12.5 goals above expected to Linus Ullmark's -23.2, on save percentages of 0.901 and 0.891.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Ottawa Senators over Detroit Red Wings is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
OTT
Linus Ullmark
49 games, 2025-26
DET
John Gibson
57 games, 2025-26
| OTT | Metric | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 55.4% | xGF% (5v5) | 48.4% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 32 | 57 | 90 | |
| R | 26 | 37 | 63 | |
| R | 16 | 37 | 53 | |
| C | 21 | 31 | 52 |
Detroit Red Wings
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 29 | 52 | 81 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | OTT @ DET | DET | OTT 3–2 DET | Missed |
| 2026-02-26 | DET @ OTT | OTT | DET 2–1 OTT | Missed |
| 2026-01-18 | OTT @ DET | DET | OTT 3–4 DET | Correct |
| 2026-01-05 | DET @ OTT | OTT | DET 5–3 OTT | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators | 100 | 58.0% |
| Detroit Red Wings | 92 | 38.1% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 35 | 39 | 74 |
| C | 28 | 35 | 63 |
| D | 9 | 43 | 52 |