Who is favoured, Toronto Maple Leafs or Vegas Golden Knights?

Vegas Golden Knights, at 62.0% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights, Thu, Oct 8: prediction and odds forecast

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2026-27 forecast · Thu, Oct 8, 10:00 PM ET

Toronto Maple LeafsTOR

85 proj. pts · 22.9% playoffs

Sergei Bobrovsky · 0.877 SV%

Bvs10:00 PM ET

Vegas Golden KnightsVGK

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

VGK controlled play at 5v5 last season, 54.7% of the expected goals to 45.9%; VGK's power play ran at 24.7% against a TOR kill at 81.2%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Adin Hill (VGK) saved -23.2 goals above expected to Sergei Bobrovsky's -41.5, on save percentages of 0.871 and 0.877.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Vegas Golden Knights over Toronto Maple Leafs is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

TOR

Sergei Bobrovsky

SV%: 0.877
GSAx: -41.5
GAA: 3.07
Record: 27-23-1

52 games, 2025-26

VGK

Adin Hill

SV%: 0.871
GSAx: -23.2
GAA: 3.04
Record: 10-9-6

27 games, 2025-26

TOR	Metric	VGK
45.9%	xGF% (5v5)	54.7%
44.8%	Shot share	53.5%
3.1	Goals for / game	3.3
3.6	Goals against / game	2.9
21.3%	Power play	24.7%
81.2%	Penalty kill	82.2%
54.2%	Faceoffs	51.3%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Auston Matthews	C	40	39	79
William Nylander	R	31	43	74
Matthew Knies	L	24	37	61
John Tavares	C	25	33	58

Vegas Golden Knights

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Mitch Marner	R	25	63	87

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-01-23	VGK @ TOR	VGK	VGK 6–3 TOR	Correct
2026-01-15	TOR @ VGK	VGK	TOR 5–6 VGK	Correct

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Toronto Maple Leafs	85	22.9%
Vegas Golden Knights	96	58.1%

Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.

The read

In goal

Last season, side by side

Who drives it

Schedule around it

Last season, head to head

Season outlook