PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2025-26 stats Shown until 2026-27 has enough games. Updates automatically. See 2026-27 projection →
Atlantic Division · Eastern Conference
49.4%
39 of 79 correct
Bottom 5 of 32 — model has struggled to read this team. Take the picks here with extra caution. Full track record →
Each ring is one round deeper, so every number sits inside the one outside it. From 20,000 simulated seasons, before any games were played.
+0.0
Special teams edge
PP 0.2% · PK 0.8%
0.5%
Faceoff win rate
+0.19
Luck score (PDO 100.6)
Near expectation
37.9
Hits + blocks / game
22.8 hits · 15.1 blocks
Percentile rankings vs. all 32 NHL teams
48
Offense
3
Defense
16
Overall
Percentile ranks across 8 dimensions. Larger shape = more complete team.
Scouting Take
The Toronto Maple Leafs profile as a middle-of-the-pack club still searching for a clear identity. Heavy OT dependency. The standings may be flattering them. In free fall over the last 10. Something needs to change.
Every metric ranked vs. the league, sorted best to worst. Long bar = advantage.
Key Takeaway
Hits (77th) and Blocks (77th) stand out as above-average. Exposed in home (16th) and point % (13th) and goal diff (10th) and reg wins (10th) and form (l10) (6th) and defense (3th) and road (3th) — opponents will target these areas.
Rank out of 32 teams in each category.
3.09 GPG
3.65 GA/G
-46
47.6%
23 RW in 82 GP
2-7-1
18-15-8
14-21-6
Underlying
| Strength | CF% | FF% | xGF% | xGF | xGA | GF | GA | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5v5 | 44.8 | 45.1 | 45.9 | 153.6 | 180.9 | 171 | 206 | 100.3 |
| Power play | 87.5 | 85.1 | 88.8 | 40.3 | 5.1 | 37 | 7 | 100.1 |
| Penalty kill | 10.5 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 57.0 | 6 | 41 | 98.4 |
| All strengths | 44.6 | 44.9 | 45.0 | 217.9 | 266.6 | 256 | 303 | 100.5 |
82 games. Corsi (CF%) and Fenwick (FF%) are shot-attempt shares; xGF% weights those attempts by chance quality. PDO is shooting plus save percentage × 10 — it regresses hard toward 100, so a team far from it is usually running hot or cold rather than good or bad. Percentages are coloured against break-even at even strength only; special teams are lopsided by definition. These are raw, unadjusted totals — no score, venue or schedule adjustment.
Roster
Player Intelligence
League board →63
Overall Quality
52% Full Strength
-4 injury impact
74
Top Line
80
Top Pair
76
Starter
Standings · 2025-26 Final
2026-27 hasn't started — showing the 2025-26 final order, with 2026-27 projected points alongside.
