PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Thu, Oct 29, 10:00 PM ET
Darcy Kuemper · 0.891 SV%
The preseason ratings make Ottawa Senators 53.1% to win on the road — barely a lean at all, worth 3.1 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project OTT for 100 points and LAK for 90.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
OTT controlled play at 5v5 last season, 55.4% of the expected goals to 51.7%; OTT's power play ran at 22.5% against a LAK kill at 75.3%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Darcy Kuemper (LAK) saved -22.9 goals above expected to Linus Ullmark's -23.2, on save percentages of 0.891 and 0.891.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Ottawa Senators over Los Angeles Kings is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
OTT
Linus Ullmark
49 games, 2025-26
LAK
Darcy Kuemper
50 games, 2025-26
| OTT | Metric | LAK |
|---|---|---|
| 55.4% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.7% |
| 53.7% | Shot share | 50.5% |
| 3.3 | Goals for / game | 2.6 |
| 3.0 | Goals against / game | 2.9 |
| 22.5% | Power play | 17.1% |
| 76.4% | Penalty kill | 75.3% |
| 54.7% | Faceoffs | 49.8% |
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 32 | 57 | 90 | |
| R | 26 | 37 | 63 | |
| L | 17 | 40 | 57 | |
| D | 12 | 42 | 54 |
Los Angeles Kings
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 25 | 47 | 72 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-24 | OTT @ LAK | LAK | OTT 1–2 LAK | Correct |
| 2025-11-15 | LAK @ OTT | LAK | LAK 1–0 OTT | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators | 100 | 58.0% |
| Los Angeles Kings | 90 | 44.3% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 27 | 31 | 58 |
| R | 22 | 31 | 52 |
| L | 22 | 28 | 50 |