PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Tue, Nov 3, 7:00 PM ET
Elvis Merzlikins · 0.883 SV%
The preseason ratings make Colorado Avalanche 52.9% to win on the road — barely a lean at all, worth 2.9 points over a coin flip, which grades C. Over a full season those same ratings project COL for 107 points and CBJ for 96.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
COL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 57.6% of the expected goals to 51.9%; COL's power play ran at 17.8% against a CBJ kill at 76.0%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Mackenzie Blackwood (COL) saved -6.0 goals above expected to Elvis Merzlikins's -21.9, on save percentages of 0.904 and 0.883.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Colorado Avalanche over Columbus Blue Jackets is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
COL
Mackenzie Blackwood
39 games, 2025-26
CBJ
Elvis Merzlikins
30 games, 2025-26
| COL | Metric | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 57.6% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.9% |
| 56.3% | Shot share | 50.5% |
| 3.7 | Goals for / game | 3.0 |
| 2.4 | Goals against / game | 3.1 |
| 17.8% | Power play | 18.9% |
| 84.0% | Penalty kill | 76.0% |
| 51.2% | Faceoffs | 50.6% |
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 38 | 70 | 108 | |
| D | 23 | 60 | 84 | |
| C | 29 | 51 | 80 | |
| C | 18 | 27 | 45 |
Columbus Blue Jackets
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 18 | 49 | 67 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | CBJ @ COL | COL | CBJ 0–4 COL | Correct |
| 2025-10-16 | COL @ CBJ | COL | COL 4–1 CBJ | Correct |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | 107 | 78.3% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 96 | 47.6% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| R | 25 | 33 | 58 |
| C | 18 | 28 | 45 |
| C | 14 | 23 | 37 |