Who is favoured, Winnipeg Jets or Dallas Stars?

Dallas Stars, at 64.7% in PuckCast's preseason forecast. That is a rating-based forecast; the full model read, with goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of puck drop.

What is a preseason forecast?

A win probability from each team's regressed preseason rating and home ice, the same ratings behind the 2026-27 projected standings. Those ratings are calibrated at the season level, for standings and playoff odds; this single-game percentage is a plain rating formula and has not been graded on its own yet. It is deliberately unsure about any single game, and the confidence grade says how far it leans.

When does the real prediction publish?

Inside the seven-day window before the game. The model re-scores it on every refresh until puck drop, with the confirmed starting goalies, and this page shows that read instead of the forecast.

Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars, Thu, Nov 12: prediction and odds forecast

PuckCast Edge

Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.

Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.

Get the Edge See the slate

2026-27 forecast · Thu, Nov 12, 8:00 PM ET

Winnipeg JetsWPG

89 proj. pts · 38.0% playoffs

Connor Hellebuyck · 0.895 SV%

Bvs8:00 PM ET

Dallas StarsDAL

103 proj. pts · 70.4% playoffs

A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works

The read

Preseason ratings · last season’s record

DAL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.2% of the expected goals to 47.7%; DAL's power play ran at 29.7% against a WPG kill at 77.6%.

In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Jake Oettinger (DAL) saved -14.5 goals above expected to Connor Hellebuyck's -22.8, on save percentages of 0.899 and 0.895.

None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Dallas Stars over Winnipeg Jets is where it starts, not where it ends.

In goal

goalie board

No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck

SV%: 0.895
GSAx: -22.8
GAA: 2.86
Record: 23-23-11

57 games, 2025-26

DAL

Jake Oettinger

SV%: 0.899
GSAx: -14.5
GAA: 2.59
Record: 35-12-6

54 games, 2025-26

WPG	Metric	DAL
47.7%	xGF% (5v5)	51.2%
48.7%	Shot share	49.3%
2.8	Goals for / game	3.3
3.1	Goals against / game	2.8
18.5%	Power play	29.7%
77.6%	Penalty kill	80.7%
51.1%	Faceoffs	51.4%

Who drives it

2026-27 projected points

Winnipeg Jets

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Kyle Connor	L	36	46	82
Mark Scheifele	C	28	45	73
Gabriel Vilardi	C	26	31	57
Josh Morrissey	D	11	37	48

Dallas Stars

Player	Pos	G	A	Pts
Jason Robertson	L	37	49	86

Last season, head to head

ledger

Date	Game	Pick	Score	Result
2026-04-02	WPG @ DAL	DAL	WPG 0–3 DAL	Correct
2026-02-02	WPG @ DAL	DAL	WPG 3–4 DAL	Correct
2025-12-09	DAL @ WPG	DAL	DAL 4–3 WPG	Correct
2025-10-09	DAL @ WPG	WPG	DAL 5–4 WPG	Missed

Season outlook

projected standings

Team	Proj. points	Playoff odds
Winnipeg Jets	89	38.0%
Dallas Stars	103	70.4%