PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Thu, Dec 10, 7:00 PM ET
Samuel Montembeault · 0.872 SV%
The preseason ratings make Montréal Canadiens 61.2% to win at home — a clear lean, worth 11.2 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project MTL for 102 points and ANA for 94.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
ANA controlled play at 5v5 last season, 51.0% of the expected goals to 50.0%; MTL's power play ran at 23.5% against a ANA kill at 75.6%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Samuel Montembeault (MTL) saved -23.9 goals above expected to Lukas Dostal's -32.8, on save percentages of 0.872 and 0.888.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Montréal Canadiens over Anaheim Ducks is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
ANA
Lukas Dostal
56 games, 2025-26
MTL
Samuel Montembeault
25 games, 2025-26
| ANA | Metric | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 51.0% | xGF% (5v5) | 50.0% |
| 52.4% | Shot share | 48.3% |
| 3.2 | Goals for / game | 3.4 |
| 3.5 | Goals against / game | 3.0 |
| 20.2% | Power play | 23.5% |
| 75.6% | Penalty kill | 77.5% |
| 47.8% | Faceoffs | 51.4% |
Anaheim Ducks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | 34 | 29 | 63 | |
| C | 25 | 34 | 60 | |
| R | 21 | 34 | 55 | |
| R | 19 | 33 | 51 |
Montréal Canadiens
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 29 | 60 | 90 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | ANA @ MTL | MTL | ANA 4–3 MTL | Missed |
| 2026-03-06 | MTL @ ANA | MTL | MTL 6–7 ANA | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Anaheim Ducks | 94 | 53.3% |
| Montréal Canadiens | 102 | 61.2% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| D | 11 | 67 | 77 |
| R | 41 | 35 | 76 |
| L | 24 | 38 | 62 |