PuckCast Edge
Every pick is free. The Edge is the rest.
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
PuckCast Edge
Betting edges, stake sizing, props priced against the line, fantasy tiers and the graded ledger. $14.99 a month in season, or $99 for the year.
2026-27 forecast · Fri, Dec 18, 7:30 PM ET
Samuel Montembeault · 0.872 SV%
The preseason ratings make Buffalo Sabres 56.9% to win at home: a modest lean, worth 6.9 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project BUF for 104 points and MTL for 102.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How this is calculated
PuckCast's preseason forecast gives Buffalo Sabres a 56.9% chance to win on Fri, Dec 18. The matchup detail follows.
MTL controlled play at 5v5 last season, 53.2% of the expected goals to 51.7%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF) saved -1.3 goals above expected to Samuel Montembeault's -23.9, on save percentages of 0.910 and 0.872.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction, with confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market, publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. Buffalo Sabres over Montréal Canadiens is where it starts, not where it ends.
No sportsbook has posted a price for this game yet. Prices usually appear roughly a week before puck drop.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
MTL
Samuel Montembeault
25 games, 2025-26
BUF
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
35 games, 2025-26
| MTL | Metric | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 53.2% | xGF% (5v5) | 51.7% |
| — | Shot share | — |
| — | Goals for / game | — |
| — | Goals against / game | — |
| — | Power play | — |
| — | Penalty kill | — |
| — | Faceoffs | — |
Montréal Canadiens
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nick Suzuki | C | 29 | 60 | 90 |
 Lane Hutson | D | 11 | 67 | 77 |
 Cole Caufield | R | 41 | 35 | 76 |
 Juraj Slafkovský | L | 24 | 38 | 62 |
Buffalo Sabres
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tage Thompson | C | 35 | 33 | 68 |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Montréal Canadiens | 102 | 61.2% |
| Buffalo Sabres | 104 | 67.2% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
Final scores from the graded ledger. A loss in overtime also reads L.
Last three seasons: BUF 2, MTL 8
| Date | Game | Final | Our pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | BUF @ MTL | BUF 3, MTL 4 | MTL hit |
| 2026-10-13 | BUF @ MTL | BUF 3, MTL 4 | BUF missed |
| 2026-01-31 | MTL @ BUF | MTL 4, BUF 2 | BUF missed |
| 2026-01-22 | BUF @ MTL | BUF 4, MTL 2 | MTL missed |
| 2026-01-15 | MTL @ BUF | MTL 3, BUF 5 | MTL missed |
| 2025-10-20 | BUF @ MTL | BUF 2, MTL 4 | MTL hit |
| 2025-03-03 | BUF @ MTL | BUF 3, MTL 4 | MTL hit |
| 2025-03-01 | MTL @ BUF | MTL 4, BUF 2 | BUF missed |
 Rasmus Dahlin | D | 18 | 50 | 68 |
|---|
 Ryan McLeod | C | 14 | 30 | 44 |
|---|
 Jack Quinn | R | 17 | 26 | 43 |
|---|
NJD@
BUF
