PuckCast Edge
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2026-27 forecast · Thu, Jan 7, 7:00 PM ET
Igor Shesterkin · 0.912 SV%
The preseason ratings make New York Rangers 61.2% to win at home — a clear lean, worth 11.2 points over a coin flip, which grades B. Over a full season those same ratings project NYR for 91 points and CHI for 83.
A preseason forecast from each team's regressed rating and home ice, the ratings behind the projected standings. The full model read, with the starting goalies, rest and form, publishes within seven days of the game and replaces this page’s numbers. How the model works
NYR controlled play at 5v5 last season, 48.0% of the expected goals to 43.7%; NYR's power play ran at 24.6% against a CHI kill at 83.6%.
In goal, neither team has named a starter. Last season Igor Shesterkin (NYR) saved 2.2 goals above expected to Spencer Knight's -12.5, on save percentages of 0.912 and 0.902.
None of that is the model read. This is a rating-and-home-ice forecast; the full prediction — confirmed goalies, rest and form, priced against the market — publishes inside the seven days before puck drop and replaces these numbers. New York Rangers over Chicago Blackhawks is where it starts, not where it ends.
No starter is named this far out. These are each side’s projected starters on the current roster, with last season’s numbers.
CHI
Spencer Knight
55 games, 2025-26
NYR
Igor Shesterkin
51 games, 2025-26
| CHI | Metric | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 43.7% | xGF% (5v5) | 48.0% |
| 45.1% | Shot share | 46.6% |
| 2.6 | Goals for / game | 2.9 |
| 3.3 | Goals against / game | 3.0 |
| 17.0% | Power play | 24.6% |
| 83.6% | Penalty kill | 79.9% |
| 46.0% | Faceoffs | 54.5% |
Chicago Blackhawks
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 31 | 52 | 83 | |
| R | 18 | 36 | 54 | |
| C | 15 | 29 | 44 | |
| C | 16 | 25 | 41 |
New York Rangers
| Player | Pos | G | A | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 11 | 51 | 61 |
| Date | Game | Pick | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | CHI @ NYR | NYR | CHI 1–6 NYR | Correct |
| 2025-12-10 | NYR @ CHI | NYR | NYR 0–3 CHI | Missed |
| Team | Proj. points | Playoff odds |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Blackhawks | 83 | 25.9% |
| New York Rangers | 91 | 37.5% |
Forecast method preseason-elo-v1; ratings as of 2026-08-19.
| C | 24 | 37 | 61 |
| C | 19 | 37 | 56 |
| R | 32 | 22 | 54 |